This is Not the Recession You are Looking For | April 30, 2022

This is Not the Recession You are Looking For Q1 preliminary GDP estimate shocks at -1.4%, vs. expectations of about +1.0% We have been saying growth is decelerating, but Q1 is not as bad as it first appears PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have reverted to pre-pandemic levels The pandemic recovery continues to make data twitchy […]
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We Choose to go to the Moon | April 2, 2022

We Choose to go to the Moon The plan for a deeply connected, just-in-time, global supply chain that will lower costs for everyone took a hard punch when Donald Trump was elected President, but the pandemic and the Ukraine war have now struck mighty blows and ‘the plan’ is getting tossed. The global economy appears […]
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The New Cold War | March 12, 2022

Short-Term Humanitarian Problem & Long-Term Economic Problem Hopes were raised, then dashed, and raised yet again this week as President Zelensky took NATO off the table for Ukraine and put a new negotiation on the table. The potential glitch appears to be the demand that ‘not one inch’ of Ukraine is lost (we’re unsure where […]
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Sleeping With the Enemy | February 26, 2022

Sleeping With the Enemy The U.S. and Europe are now beginning to pay the price for their inability, or unwillingness, to recognize the growing dependence of Western economies on political adversaries. The economic connections between Russia and the U.S. and EU have complicated the situation and have skewed sanctions to the weakside thus far. Sanctions […]
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Embracing Risk | January 29, 2022

Embracing Risk After operating in an environment where risks were clearly backstopped by the Federal Reserve. For investors, the world we have known for at least the last 13 years was on course for a fundamental change. The message that investors should be hearing loud and clear is that that there are risks that can’t […]
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Crazy Headlines of the Week | October 23, 2021

Crazy Headlines of the Week This week seemed to bring headline after headline that simply caused us to mutter “this is crazy”. ‘Shortage’ appears to be the key word in those stories, whether it is shortage of goods or commodities or the shortage of common sense in Congress. And who knows what’s going on in […]
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