All In

All In The Big Beautiful Bill is a very big economic bet. We will leave the dissection of the bill and the various pros and cons and who wins and who loses to others. The big economic picture is that in order for debt relative ro GDP to decline, GDP growth needs to outpace growth […]
READ POST

Tick-Tock

Tick-Tock Tariff concerns went out the window as geopolitical turmoil took center stage. That may now be reversing. In just 11 days (July 9), the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs—which was the catalyst for the second quarter rally—theoretically ends. As you may recall, Liberation Day 1.0 was very unpleasant, will Liberation Day 2.0 be different? […]
READ POST

Bad Moon Rising

Bad Moon Rising Economist Herbert Stein, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, is quoted as saying “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” For better or worse, it appears the Iranian nuclear program has reached that point. It has always been U.S. and Israeli […]
READ POST

Ball of Confusion

Ball of Confusion While driving and listening to oldies this week, the Temptations’ 1970 hit “Ball of Confusion” came on. All I could think was how fitting that song is for today! It’s always frustrating for forecasters to stare at counterbalancing indicators when trying to assess market direction. While the weight of these indicators tends […]
READ POST