Crowding Out: Competition for Capital

Crowding Out: Competition for Capital This week, the Treasury surprised markets when it said it would at least double the maximum size of certain buyback operations for 10- to 30-year securities, raising the cap from $2 billion to “at least” $4 billion per operation. The initial market reaction was straightforward: prices of long-dated Treasuries rose […]
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The Yen is Weak. Should We Care?

The Yen is Weak. Should We Care? In late July, Japan and the United States reportedly launched a coordinated currency intervention to support the Japanese yen after it fell to a near 40-year low. The yen weakened sharply in mid-to-late July, reaching almost ¥164 per U.S. dollar after beginning the year near ¥156. That decline […]
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Why U.S. Gas Prices Rise Despite “Energy Independence”

Why U.S. Gas Prices Rise Despite “Energy Independence” Average U.S. gasoline prices are back above $4 per gallon, and few people are happy about it—except perhaps the oil industry. The reality is that U.S. energy independence does not guarantee low domestic fuel prices. As the world’s largest oil producer, the United States can protect itself […]
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Back to the Future: The Quiet Revolution at the Fed

Back to the Future: The Quiet Revolution at the Fed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh advocates ending the decades of market-saving interventions and breaking the dependency on central bank rescues. He seeks to restore true price discovery by prioritizing long-term stability over short-term market noise, ultimately favoring reduced leverage and organic market cycles. The Warsh era […]
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Is the AI Debt Tsunami Hitting the Yield Wall?

Is the AI Debt Tsunami Hitting the Yield Wall? The Iran war looks unsolvable, and the risk is higher oil prices for longer, bringing inflation concerns back into the picture. With the exception of Microsoft, the mega-tech companies are now free cash flow negative due to the still accelerating spend on AI infrastructure, and they […]
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Patience Pays Off

Patience Pays Off Tech heavyweights—AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems and aerospace giant SpaceX—saw their shares dip below their respective initial public offering (IPO) prices this week. While dipping below the IPO price is a psychological blow to early buyers, we, along with Wall Street analysts, remain bullish on the long-term potential of both companies. However, there […]
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Punching Above Their Weight

Punching Above Their Weight The first half of 2026 was marked by highly unusual circumstances. Stocks representing less than 1% of the S&P 500 market value were responsible for 24% of the 8.3% index return in the first half of 2026. The question now is whether these are the next new growth stocks or just […]
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