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Weekly Commentary

Recent Volatility | July 24, 2021

As it often does, the stock market hit a rough patch in the beginning of the week due to concerns around the delta variant, economic growth, interest rates and more..MORE

Cross Currents | July 17, 2021

It seems that investors are being pulled in opposite directions with greater regularity these days. Confusing cross currents are not unusual, but the sheer number of them hitting at the same time makes today a more confusing time than usual…MORE

Why are government bond yields declining? | July 10, 2021

What we found to be most interesting, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on June 16th, is government bond interest rates have been on a decline. The yield closed at 1.56% on June 16th, and on Thursday it declined to 1.28%…MORE

Asset Class Return Projections | July 3, 2021

The higher asset prices rise, the lower the expected return on an asset is. That sounds counter intuitive, but if assets rise to their true value, then the higher the price goes, the less upside there is left, i.e., expected returns are lower…MORE

Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021

Economic growth has been extraordinary, albeit from a very low, pandemic-induced base, and concerns of inflation have been front and center. Markets look confused, but this is just the next step in recovery. Although life is getting back to normal, the economy is far from it…MORE

Dot Plots and Ink Blots | June 19, 2021

The markets were effectively paralyzed early this week in anticipation of the Fed releasing its latest forecasts, most important of which is the ‘Dot Plot’, which is the interest rate forecast of the 18 individual members of the FOMC…MORE

Stepping Back | June 12, 2021

It’s very easy to get caught up in the day-to-day, week-to-week action in markets, and that requires a discipline to occasionally take a step back and look at the bigger picture. This is one of those times…MORE

Is Big Oil Dead? | June 5, 2021

The energy sector has been the market leader in 2021 as the economy recovers. Ironically, the Biden green agenda could provide the next leg up for energy investments…MORE

Can China Reverse the Current Inflation Trend? | May 29, 2021

Last week we spoke about how a hoarding mentality can have a meaningful impact on inflation. Recently, the Chinese government took an important step in attempting to stop that hoarding reaction in China, which is, of course, the world’s primary user of raw materials…MORE

Commitment | May 22, 2021

During difficult weeks like this, the ability to plow through the noise and the chaotic trading is tied to your commitment to time tested investment principles. If you are merely involved with no rhyme or reason, markets can be treacherous…MORE

Back to the Future | May 15, 2021

Last week we discussed the evidence for the current inflation to be persistent or transitory. There are good arguments on both sides, which to us implies that some items will be transitory and others not, thus some increase in inflation will be persistent. The unanswered question is how persistent and that is where markets have been laser focused…MORE

The Great Inflation Debate | May 8, 2021

Inflation is the great unseen tax on your savings. It degrading the purchasing power of your dollars. Parts of our portfolios are designed to deal with inflationary trends with the intent of maintaining your purchasing power if and when inflation comes…MORE

Taxes Are Headed Higher – Why You Shouldn’t Worry | May 1, 2021

Even the slimmest of legislative majorities is a strong incentive to propose big plans and this time around is no different. Much like President Trump, President Biden is seeking to implement his campaign promises…MORE

Staying Focused on the Long-Term | April 24, 2021

The past few weeks have seen one blockbuster economic report after another. From the 916,000 jobs that were added in March, to retail sales jumping 9.8% month-over-month, these are some of the best economic numbers we could see in a lifetime…MORE

Markets Are Fickle – BofA Fund Manager Survey | April 17, 2021

Last week we asked if strong economic growth estimates were already priced into the Market. This week we have a similar question based on the most recent (April) Bank of America Fund Manger’s Survey…MORE

Are Soaring Growth Estimates Already Priced In? | April 10, 2021

It may not be the roaring 20’s again, but it sure looks like a roaring 2021. The combination of vaccine progress, massive stimulus, and a very easy comparison to the disastrous COVID economic impact makes GDP forecasts that are well above the pre-pandemic trendline an easy call…MORE

Economy: Full Steam Ahead | April 3, 2021

Investors remain focused on the future and appear less concerned about the past and the evidence is in the Weekly Economic Index from the New York Fed…MORE

Stocks Remain A Prisoner of Interest Rates | March 27, 2021

The economic experience in the U.S. compared with Europe and much of Asia is very different. Although there are some risks of an increasing infection rate in the U.S. after Spring Break, a rapidly growing vaccination effort rate is mitigating that risk and confidence is building…MORE

Can the Infrastructure Lure finally Catch Some Funding? | March 20, 2021

There are few issues that have been discussed as consistently as infrastructure, but with no meaningful result. Most recently, infrastructure was a key pillar of the Trump agenda, but it went nowhere fast. Now the Biden Administration is talking infrastructure too…MORE

Retirement Isn’t a Four-Letter Word | March 13, 2021

Each year J.P. Morgan releases an educational booklet on retirement and because we focus so heavily on retirement for clients, we have made it a practice of taking a few topics from it for our clients…MORE

Does the Financial News Have You Confused? Here is a Simplification. | March 6, 2021

Today’s world of instant and constant information can easily put us in a position where we can’t see the forest for the trees. Stepping back from the constant barrage of seemingly conflicting financial data points and focusing on the ‘forest’ can be an enlightening exercise…MORE

The Long and Short of Interest Rates | February 27, 2021

When the week started, it appeared that short-term rates would be the ‘story of the week’ due to a planned drain of Treasury cash. However, on Thursday, long-term rates took center stage as the 10-year yield jumped from a 1.38% close on Wednesday…MORE

When it Absolutely, Positively Has to Be There… | February 20, 2021

Those old enough will probably recognize our title from the iconic Federal Express tagline ‘When it absolutely, positively has to be there overnight’. When the pandemic hit almost a year ago, one of the key words of the time was delivery.…MORE

Centenarians Dilemma | February 13, 2021

At PWM, we strongly prefer that all of our clients complete a retirement planning exercise so we can properly advise them in all their financial decisions. One of the key questions we need to estimate in developing the plan is how long they expect to live…MORE

Taking Stock of 2020 | February 6, 2021

There is no doubt 2020 was one for the record books and in more ways than one. We were planning this commentary several weeks ago, but the craziness continued into 2021, so we postponed the comments until this week…MORE

Are We in a Bubble, and if so, Is It Ready to Pop? | January 30, 2021

Over the years we have experienced some crazy weeks in financial markets. This week is one right up there with the craziest of them. The big topic with investors and non-investors alike is: ‘Are we are in a financial bubble?’…MORE

Commodities – The Bull Market You Aren’t Hearing About | January 23, 2021

Over the past several months, these pages have been littered with concerns about inflation re-appearing. Much like recessions and pandemics, we never really know precisely when inflation might happen. This inability to predict markets is at the heart of our investment process…MORE

Bond Yields Raise Their Ugly Head | January 16, 2021

Most of the time, market commentary focuses on the stock market, but every so often, the bond market flexes its muscle and takes center stage. This week was one of those times and with good reason…MORE

Georgia Produces a Blue Ripple | January 9, 2021

In the final days leading up to the Georgia Senate races, we were given a hint of what was to come. It appears the Democrats have won both Senate seats which substantially changes the mathematics in Washington…MORE

Prognosticators Delight | January 2, 2021

The magic of the new year is that prognosticators get to wipe the slate clean and begin anew, and as usual there is no shortage of prognostications for 2021. The more common themes call for a weaker dollar, stronger international markets, a spark of inflation, a rebound in small cap stocks, and the like. We have a different perspective…MORE

Redefining Normal in 2021 | December 26, 2020

The pandemic had barely begun when speculation began about how this pandemic would change our world on a more permanent basis. That speculation has been non-stop ever since, but with the first two vaccines approved and now being administered, the bulk of the pandemic is hopefully in the rear-view mirror…MORE

A Holiday Gift for America? | December 19, 2020

The consensus right before the election was that a Blue Wave would create a very large (around $3 trillion) stimulus package, and without the Blue Wave, something a bit less would be more likely. But with the Trump Administration pushing their number up towards $2 trillion pre-election, the expectations were that no matter the election outcome, a substantial stimulus deal would be forthcoming…MORE

Does ESG Investing Have the Right Stuff? | December 12, 2020

We are very encouraged with society’s increased awareness and focus on issues related to environmental and social issues. An outgrowth of this awareness, the idea of incorporating these considerations, known as ESG – Environmental, Social Governance, as part of the investment process has gained in popularity…MORE

Bitcoin is Flying – Should I Care? | December 5, 2020

Bitcoin has taken off again, reaching new highs and grabbing headlines in the financial news. We have taken notice and we’ve been discussing Bitcoin’s place, if any, in a portfolio. Some of our readers have likely traded and/or still own Bitcoin or one of the other digital currencies…MORE

Are Investors Out Over their Skis? | November 28, 2020

Ed Yardeni, a noted economist, posted a chapter from his book “Fed Watching for Fun & Profit” on Twitter. In particular, he posted the chapter on Janet Yellen, the former FED Chair and now Treasury Secretary in waiting….MORE

What the Vaccines Might Mean for Inflation | November 21, 2020

Investors continue to weigh in on the rotation between the ‘COVID trade’ and the ‘Reflation trade’. Breakthroughs this week by major healthcare companies in developing vaccines has pushed optimism for the future…MORE

It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times | November 14, 2020

We have to be honest, when we spoke about optimism last week, we didn’t expect it to arrive on Monday, but it appears to have done just that in the form of the Pfizer vaccine announcement…MORE

Reasons for Optimism | November 7, 2020

The election is over. As of this writing, results are not official, but the odds appear overwhelming that Biden has won the Presidency. The republican hold on the Senate is tenuous and looks like it could depend on two Georgia run-off elections in January…MORE

Elections: Don’t Let Emotions Make Investment Decisions | October 31, 2020

Election season has always motivated prognosticators to forecast the stock markets future based on the election results. The dichotomy of the candidates the last two cycles has made those prognostications that much more extreme…MORE

The Election is Almost Here. What Happens Next? | October 24, 2020

Historically, elections have mattered most to the market when they happen, and the long-term effects are much more muted. This is because the market is quick to adjust expectations based on the new reality that is created by an election…MORE

PWM Education Series: Key Highlights | October 17, 2020

The Economy: While there are pockets of extreme weakness (such as travel and leisure), overall economic activity and earnings are looking pretty good. Economic activity has generally surprised to the upside thus far…MORE

Gift Tax Exemptions Could Become Much Less Available | October 10, 2020

If we learned one thing from the 2016 presidential election, it is that the only poll that matters is the one taken on Election Day. The outcome of presidential elections often has a dramatic impact on our financial planning…MORE

The Argument for Value Over Growth Equities Right Now | October 3, 2020

We came across some research from Bank of America this week (BofA’s Picks for Quality Value stocks, Sept, 29, 2020) that we thought was particularly interesting because it was 100% based on observations of past cycles, not merely opinions…MORE

Ruth Bader Ginsburg, The Election, and the Stock Market | September 26, 2020

As if we needed any more election anxiety, RBG’s death raises the stakes of this already contentious election and that is a headwind for markets in the near term. Here are the key investment issues…MORE

Fed Comments Upset the Stock Market | September 19, 2020

There are times when markets appear to be looking for an excuse to move. This was one of those weeks. The Federal Reserve Meeting ended Wednesday, and as is customary, Fed Chair Powell made comments at the close of the meeting…MORE

Is this Just a Correction in a Bull Market? | September 12, 2020

As you all should know by now, we do not attempt to time markets because no one can reliably predict when markets turn. We only know after the fact. The following are two questions investors are thinking about…MORE

Fed Chair Powell Changes the Rules | August 31, 2020

Sorting through Federal Reserve Policy statements can often be a cure for insomnia, and Mr. Powell’s speech on Thursday was no different. I guess economists just aren’t particularly engaging speakers…MORE

What Does Kamala Harris Mean to the Biden Ticket? | August 17, 2020

She is clearly the safe choice based on the parameters that Biden laid out, as well as the choice with the best chance to complete a winning team in November. The following outlines a few of her economic and financial policies…MORE

Are Gold and Silver Similar? | August 10, 2020

The short answer is yes, they are. We have spoken about the role of gold several times over the last few months. Now, silver is getting on the bandwagon. Although silver has more industrial uses than gold…MORE

The GOP Unveiled Its Version of the Next COVID Relief Bill | August 3, 2020

The Democrats hate it. Is that a problem? You bet it is. These two warring factions, each catering to the extreme forces within their party, will have a hard time agreeing on anything…MORE

Markets Do Not Always Make Sense | July 20, 2020

Good news is great news and bad news is good news, or so it seems when looking at the stock market these days. In the financial news, it is difficult to avoid a story discussing how the market has de-coupled from…MORE

Market’s Ebbs and Flows | July 13, 2020

Keeping perspective during the market’s ebbs and flows is one of the harder skills to master for investors, and markets today are presenting another challenge, so here is our perspective…MORE

Gold in Investment Portfolios | July 6, 2020

Pandemic news has consistently been the top headline producer this year, but at the close of the second quarter, the news turned back to stocks as the stock market had its best second quarter since 1998, with SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, gaining 17.1% in the quarter…MORE

Rapid Changes | June 29, 2020

Lately, it seems that all of these are coming into play in rapid succession. COVID is sickening America, then it gets better, now it’s getting worse again. Some places re-open early, now they are facing closing again…MORE

The Retirement Conundrum | June 22, 2020

This week we want to start by featuring what we view as an extremely important article in The Wall Street Journal. The article discusses the issue of experiencing large losses as you near your retirement and one of the most…MORE

The Fed Roils the Stock Market | June 15, 2020

The Federal Reserve made it very clear on Wednesday that it intends to keep its foot on the monetary gas. Fed Chairman Powell stated, “We are strongly committed to using our tools to do whatever we can and for as long as it takes to provide some relief and stability.”…MORE

Speaking Out | June 8, 2020

What happened to George Floyd was absolutely horrific. The video of that event is as disturbing as any we have seen in a very long time. We stand with the peaceful protestors demanding change and truly hope and pray that this is…MORE

PWM’s Latest Thoughts on Recent Economic News | May 26, 2020

We’ve all seen the headlines, over and over again. “The unemployment rate is the highest since the Great Depression.” “Manufacturing dropped the most since 2008.” “The Leading Economic Index plunged the most on record.”…MORE

No One Knows the Future | May 18, 2020

The current uncertainty in the world is at a fever pitch as it relates to the markets and the intermediate and longer-term opportunities investments. This is obviously as a result of a global pandemic we have not experienced in our lifetime…MORE

Stay Positive | May 12, 2020

Forbes wrote an excellent article that I thought was very apropos for this current crisis we are going through. I have read countless investment, business and self-help books during my lifetime and this article really does an exquisite job in summarizing…MORE

Significant News on the COVID Front This Week | May 4, 2020

There were several pieces of significant news on the COVID front this week. On the treatment front, the Gilead drug Remdesivir had some good results in a Phase III trial. This is a significant step because anti-viral agents have been prone…MORE

How To Keep Your Head about You | April 27, 2020

One of the most difficult things to do is to keep your head about you when others are losing theirs (apologies to Rudyard Kipling). The reason is that you never know if you are just completely out of touch with reality…MORE

COVID-19 Update | April 20, 2020

Last week the news was bad and the market was up. This week the news got better and the market was up again! There are two things that really stand out to us. The first is the global progression of the disease, which is depicted…MORE

How Life Returns to Normal | April 11, 2020

The holidays typically find us with our extended families, but this week that will not be the case. It is indeed a bit of a sacrifice. But no one has sacrificed more than medical professionals, police officers, fire departments, social workers, caregivers, truck drivers, pharmacists…MORE

Sobering Week | April 4, 2020

This past week has been very sobering and emotional to say the least. I expect more of the same in the weeks ahead. Many people didn’t know a single person infected with coronavirus as recently as a few weeks ago….MORE

How Bond Rallies Help Investors Amid Market Pullbacks | February 24, 2020

After weeks of reaching one new record high after another, the U.S. stock market has begun to pull back. Investors are reacting to headlines on the spread of the novel coronavirus around the globe, now officially known as COVID-19, as well as…MORE

Why the Economy Is Stable Despite the Public Health Emergency | February 10, 2020

The stock market continues to react to coronavirus headlines on a daily basis — with both negative and positive market swings. As the death toll rises (primarily in China at the moment), the fact that this is a human tragedy and not just an economic…MORE

Why Investors Shouldn’t Overreact to Recent Headlines | February 3, 2020

We’re only a few weeks into the new year and global headlines have already begun to rattle markets. As of Monday’s open, U.S. markets had pulled back about 2.5% from recent peaks while interest rates had declined by about one-third of a percent…MORE

Why Global Diversification Is Important Despite the Coronavirus | January 27, 2020

Global stocks are in the red this year due to fears of the spreading coronavirus and geopolitical instability. The Chinese stock market, at the epicenter of the public health crisis, and emerging markets more broadly, have taken the brunt of the hit…MORE

Why Investor Discipline Matters When Markets Are Calm | January 17, 2020

The stock market has performed well not only over the past year, but since the beginning of 2017. Over this three-year period, the S&P 500 has risen by over 45%. Investors who were able to stay invested through the volatility of late 2018 and during…MORE

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Identifying Your Property/Casualty Insurance Gaps

Standard insurance policies cannot adequately address complex needs. Here are 5 key questions that can reveal critical coverage gaps….MORE

Loss Harvesting Season Is All Year Long

Don’t just wait for December to take advantage of great tax mitigation opportunities. For most investors in U.S. stocks and other risk assets, 2019 ended up being a surprisingly strong year, despite dire warnings about the inverted yield curve…MORE

Incorporating Philanthropy into Your Financial Plan

Purposeful philanthropy is the art of thoughtfully, intentionally and purposefully integrating the passion, spirit and commitment of philanthropy into the fabric of our family system…MORE

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Wealth Management and Retirement Planning Strategies for Successful Dentists

After conducting interviews with more than two dozen successful dentists in the New York City metro area, it’s clear the profession is going through a tidal wave of changes—not all of them pleasant…MORE

How Surgeons Can Prepare for a ‘Work Optional’ Retirement

Declining profits combined with growing feelings of dissatisfaction and powerlessness among surgeons has many considering early retirement. Surgeons often find themselves competing with insurance companies and hospitals for the same dollars and…MORE

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Weekly Commentary

Recent Volatility | July 24, 2021

Cross Currents | July 17, 2021

Why are government bond yields declining? | July 10, 2021

Asset Class Return Projections | July 3, 2021

Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021

Dot Plots and Ink Blots | June 19, 2021

Stepping Back | June 12, 2021

Is Big Oil Dead? | June 5, 2021

Can China Reverse the Current Inflation Trend? | May 29, 2021

Commitment | May 22, 2021

Back to the Future | May 15, 2021

The Great Inflation Debate | May 8, 2021

Taxes Are Headed Higher – Why You Shouldn’t Worry | May 1, 2021

Staying Focused on the Long-Term | April 24, 2021

Markets Are Fickle – BofA Fund Manager Survey | April 17, 2021

Are Soaring Growth Estimates Already Priced In? | April 10, 2021

Economy: Full Steam Ahead | April 3, 2021

Stocks Remain A Prisoner of Interest Rates | March 27, 2021

Can the Infrastructure Lure finally Catch Some Funding? | March 20, 2021

Retirement Isn’t a Four-Letter Word | March 13, 2021

Does the Financial News Have You Confused? Here is a Simplification. | March 6, 2021

The Long and Short of Interest Rates | February 27, 2021

When it Absolutely, Positively Has to Be There… | February 20, 2021

Centenarians Dilemma | February 13, 2021

Taking Stock of 2020 | February 6, 2021

Are We in a Bubble, and if so, Is It Ready to Pop? | January 30, 2021

Commodities – The Bull Market You Aren’t Hearing About | January 23, 2021

Bond Yields Raise Their Ugly Head | January 16, 2021

Georgia Produces a Blue Ripple | January 9, 2021

Prognosticators Delight | January 2, 2021

Redefining Normal in 2021 | December 26, 2020

A Holiday Gift for America? | December 19, 2020

Does ESG Investing Have the Right Stuff? | December 12, 2020

Bitcoin is Flying – Should I Care? | December 5, 2020

Are Investors Out Over their Skis? | November 28, 2020

What the Vaccines Might Mean for Inflation | November 21, 2020

It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times | November 14, 2020

Reasons for Optimism | November 7, 2020

Elections: Don’t Let Emotions Make Investment Decisions | October 31, 2020

The Election is Almost Here. What Happens Next? | October 24, 2020

PWM Education Series: Key Highlights | October 17, 2020

Gift Tax Exemptions Could Become Much Less Available | October 10, 2020

The Argument for Value Over Growth Equities Right Now | October 3, 2020

Ruth Bader Ginsburg, The Election, and the Stock Market | September 26, 2020

Fed Comments Upset the Stock Market | September 19, 2020

Is this Just a Correction in a Bull Market? | September 12, 2020

Fed Chair Powell Changes the Rules | August 31, 2020

What Does Kamala Harris Mean to the Biden Ticket? | August 17, 2020

Are Gold and Silver Similar? | August 10, 2020

The GOP Unveiled Its Version of the Next COVID Relief Bill | August 3, 2020

Markets Do Not Always Make Sense | July 20, 2020

Market’s Ebbs and Flows | July 13, 2020

Gold in Investment Portfolios | July 6, 2020

Rapid Changes | June 29, 2020

The Retirement Conundrum | June 22, 2020

The Fed Roils the Stock Market | June 15, 2020

Speaking Out | June 8, 2020

PWM’s Latest Thoughts on Recent Economic News | May 26, 2020

No One Knows the Future | May 18, 2020

Stay Positive | May 12, 2020

Significant News on the COVID Front This Week | May 4, 2020

How To Keep Your Head about You | April 27, 2020

COVID-19 Update | April 20, 2020

How Life Returns to Normal | April 11, 2020

Sobering Week | April 4, 2020

How Bond Rallies Help Investors Amid Market Pullbacks | February 24, 2020

Why the Economy Is Stable Despite the Public Health Emergency | February 10, 2020

Why Investors Shouldn’t Overreact to Recent Headlines | February 3, 2020

Why Global Diversification Is Important Despite the Coronavirus | January 27, 2020

Why Investor Discipline Matters When Markets Are Calm | January 17, 2020

Research

U.S. Stock Market

International Markets

Fixed Income and Interest Rates

Housing

Federal Reserve, Gov’t Spending and Taxes

U.S. Economy

Currencies

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