Forward
Weekly Commentary
Does the Financial News Have You Confused? Here is a Simplification. | March 6, 2021
Today’s world of instant and constant information can easily put us in a position where we can’t see the forest for the trees. Stepping back from the constant barrage of seemingly conflicting financial data points and focusing on the ‘forest’ can be an enlightening exercise…MORE
The Long and Short of Interest Rates | February 27, 2021
When the week started, it appeared that short-term rates would be the ‘story of the week’ due to a planned drain of Treasury cash. However, on Thursday, long-term rates took center stage as the 10-year yield jumped from a 1.38% close on Wednesday…MORE
When it Absolutely, Positively Has to Be There… | February 20, 2021
Those old enough will probably recognize our title from the iconic Federal Express tagline ‘When it absolutely, positively has to be there overnight’. When the pandemic hit almost a year ago, one of the key words of the time was delivery.…MORE
Centenarians Dilemma | February 13, 2021
At PWM, we strongly prefer that all of our clients complete a retirement planning exercise so we can properly advise them in all their financial decisions. One of the key questions we need to estimate in developing the plan is how long they expect to live…MORE
Taking Stock of 2020 | February 6, 2021
There is no doubt 2020 was one for the record books and in more ways than one. We were planning this commentary several weeks ago, but the craziness continued into 2021, so we postponed the comments until this week…MORE
Are We in a Bubble, and if so, Is It Ready to Pop? | January 30, 2021
Over the years we have experienced some crazy weeks in financial markets. This week is one right up there with the craziest of them. The big topic with investors and non-investors alike is: ‘Are we are in a financial bubble?’…MORE
Commodities – The Bull Market You Aren’t Hearing About | January 23, 2021
Over the past several months, these pages have been littered with concerns about inflation re-appearing. Much like recessions and pandemics, we never really know precisely when inflation might happen. This inability to predict markets is at the heart of our investment process…MORE
Bond Yields Raise Their Ugly Head | January 16, 2021
Most of the time, market commentary focuses on the stock market, but every so often, the bond market flexes its muscle and takes center stage. This week was one of those times and with good reason…MORE
Georgia Produces a Blue Ripple | January 9, 2021
In the final days leading up to the Georgia Senate races, we were given a hint of what was to come. It appears the Democrats have won both Senate seats which substantially changes the mathematics in Washington…MORE
Prognosticators Delight | January 2, 2021
The magic of the new year is that prognosticators get to wipe the slate clean and begin anew, and as usual there is no shortage of prognostications for 2021. The more common themes call for a weaker dollar, stronger international markets, a spark of inflation, a rebound in small cap stocks, and the like. We have a different perspective…MORE
Redefining Normal in 2021 | December 26, 2020
The pandemic had barely begun when speculation began about how this pandemic would change our world on a more permanent basis. That speculation has been non-stop ever since, but with the first two vaccines approved and now being administered, the bulk of the pandemic is hopefully in the rear-view mirror…MORE
A Holiday Gift for America? | December 19, 2020
The consensus right before the election was that a Blue Wave would create a very large (around $3 trillion) stimulus package, and without the Blue Wave, something a bit less would be more likely. But with the Trump Administration pushing their number up towards $2 trillion pre-election, the expectations were that no matter the election outcome, a substantial stimulus deal would be forthcoming…MORE
Does ESG Investing Have the Right Stuff? | December 12, 2020
We are very encouraged with society’s increased awareness and focus on issues related to environmental and social issues. An outgrowth of this awareness, the idea of incorporating these considerations, known as ESG – Environmental, Social Governance, as part of the investment process has gained in popularity…MORE
Bitcoin is Flying – Should I Care? | December 5, 2020
Bitcoin has taken off again, reaching new highs and grabbing headlines in the financial news. We have taken notice and we’ve been discussing Bitcoin’s place, if any, in a portfolio. Some of our readers have likely traded and/or still own Bitcoin or one of the other digital currencies…MORE
Are Investors Out Over their Skis? | November 28, 2020
Ed Yardeni, a noted economist, posted a chapter from his book “Fed Watching for Fun & Profit” on Twitter. In particular, he posted the chapter on Janet Yellen, the former FED Chair and now Treasury Secretary in waiting….MORE
What the Vaccines Might Mean for Inflation | November 21, 2020
Investors continue to weigh in on the rotation between the ‘COVID trade’ and the ‘Reflation trade’. Breakthroughs this week by major healthcare companies in developing vaccines has pushed optimism for the future…MORE
It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times | November 14, 2020
We have to be honest, when we spoke about optimism last week, we didn’t expect it to arrive on Monday, but it appears to have done just that in the form of the Pfizer vaccine announcement…MORE
Reasons for Optimism | November 7, 2020
The election is over. As of this writing, results are not official, but the odds appear overwhelming that Biden has won the Presidency. The republican hold on the Senate is tenuous and looks like it could depend on two Georgia run-off elections in January…MORE
Elections: Don’t Let Emotions Make Investment Decisions | October 31, 2020
Election season has always motivated prognosticators to forecast the stock markets future based on the election results. The dichotomy of the candidates the last two cycles has made those prognostications that much more extreme…MORE
The Election is Almost Here. What Happens Next? | October 24, 2020
Historically, elections have mattered most to the market when they happen, and the long-term effects are much more muted. This is because the market is quick to adjust expectations based on the new reality that is created by an election…MORE
PWM Education Series: Key Highlights | October 17, 2020
The Economy: While there are pockets of extreme weakness (such as travel and leisure), overall economic activity and earnings are looking pretty good. Economic activity has generally surprised to the upside thus far…MORE
Gift Tax Exemptions Could Become Much Less Available | October 10, 2020
If we learned one thing from the 2016 presidential election, it is that the only poll that matters is the one taken on Election Day. The outcome of presidential elections often has a dramatic impact on our financial planning…MORE
The Argument for Value Over Growth Equities Right Now | October 3, 2020
We came across some research from Bank of America this week (BofA’s Picks for Quality Value stocks, Sept, 29, 2020) that we thought was particularly interesting because it was 100% based on observations of past cycles, not merely opinions…MORE
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, The Election, and the Stock Market | September 26, 2020
As if we needed any more election anxiety, RBG’s death raises the stakes of this already contentious election and that is a headwind for markets in the near term. Here are the key investment issues…MORE
Fed Comments Upset the Stock Market | September 19, 2020
There are times when markets appear to be looking for an excuse to move. This was one of those weeks. The Federal Reserve Meeting ended Wednesday, and as is customary, Fed Chair Powell made comments at the close of the meeting…MORE
Is this Just a Correction in a Bull Market? | September 12, 2020
As you all should know by now, we do not attempt to time markets because no one can reliably predict when markets turn. We only know after the fact. The following are two questions investors are thinking about…MORE
Fed Chair Powell Changes the Rules | August 31, 2020
Sorting through Federal Reserve Policy statements can often be a cure for insomnia, and Mr. Powell’s speech on Thursday was no different. I guess economists just aren’t particularly engaging speakers…MORE
What Does Kamala Harris Mean to the Biden Ticket? | August 17, 2020
She is clearly the safe choice based on the parameters that Biden laid out, as well as the choice with the best chance to complete a winning team in November. The following outlines a few of her economic and financial policies…MORE
Are Gold and Silver Similar? | August 10, 2020
The short answer is yes, they are. We have spoken about the role of gold several times over the last few months. Now, silver is getting on the bandwagon. Although silver has more industrial uses than gold…MORE
The GOP Unveiled Its Version of the Next COVID Relief Bill | August 3, 2020
The Democrats hate it. Is that a problem? You bet it is. These two warring factions, each catering to the extreme forces within their party, will have a hard time agreeing on anything…MORE
Markets Do Not Always Make Sense | July 20, 2020
Good news is great news and bad news is good news, or so it seems when looking at the stock market these days. In the financial news, it is difficult to avoid a story discussing how the market has de-coupled from…MORE
Market’s Ebbs and Flows | July 13, 2020
Keeping perspective during the market’s ebbs and flows is one of the harder skills to master for investors, and markets today are presenting another challenge, so here is our perspective…MORE
Gold in Investment Portfolios | July 6, 2020
Pandemic news has consistently been the top headline producer this year, but at the close of the second quarter, the news turned back to stocks as the stock market had its best second quarter since 1998, with SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, gaining 17.1% in the quarter…MORE
Rapid Changes | June 29, 2020
Lately, it seems that all of these are coming into play in rapid succession. COVID is sickening America, then it gets better, now it’s getting worse again. Some places re-open early, now they are facing closing again…MORE
The Retirement Conundrum | June 22, 2020
This week we want to start by featuring what we view as an extremely important article in The Wall Street Journal. The article discusses the issue of experiencing large losses as you near your retirement and one of the most…MORE
The Fed Roils the Stock Market | June 15, 2020
The Federal Reserve made it very clear on Wednesday that it intends to keep its foot on the monetary gas. Fed Chairman Powell stated, “We are strongly committed to using our tools to do whatever we can and for as long as it takes to provide some relief and stability.”…MORE
Speaking Out | June 8, 2020
What happened to George Floyd was absolutely horrific. The video of that event is as disturbing as any we have seen in a very long time. We stand with the peaceful protestors demanding change and truly hope and pray that this is…MORE
PWM’s Latest Thoughts on Recent Economic News | May 26, 2020
We’ve all seen the headlines, over and over again. “The unemployment rate is the highest since the Great Depression.” “Manufacturing dropped the most since 2008.” “The Leading Economic Index plunged the most on record.”…MORE
No One Knows the Future | May 18, 2020
The current uncertainty in the world is at a fever pitch as it relates to the markets and the intermediate and longer-term opportunities investments. This is obviously as a result of a global pandemic we have not experienced in our lifetime…MORE
Stay Positive | May 12, 2020
Forbes wrote an excellent article that I thought was very apropos for this current crisis we are going through. I have read countless investment, business and self-help books during my lifetime and this article really does an exquisite job in summarizing…MORE
Significant News on the COVID Front This Week | May 4, 2020
There were several pieces of significant news on the COVID front this week. On the treatment front, the Gilead drug Remdesivir had some good results in a Phase III trial. This is a significant step because anti-viral agents have been prone…MORE
How To Keep Your Head about You | April 27, 2020
One of the most difficult things to do is to keep your head about you when others are losing theirs (apologies to Rudyard Kipling). The reason is that you never know if you are just completely out of touch with reality…MORE
COVID-19 Update | April 20, 2020
Last week the news was bad and the market was up. This week the news got better and the market was up again! There are two things that really stand out to us. The first is the global progression of the disease, which is depicted…MORE
How Life Returns to Normal | April 11, 2020
The holidays typically find us with our extended families, but this week that will not be the case. It is indeed a bit of a sacrifice. But no one has sacrificed more than medical professionals, police officers, fire departments, social workers, caregivers, truck drivers, pharmacists…MORE
Sobering Week | April 4, 2020
This past week has been very sobering and emotional to say the least. I expect more of the same in the weeks ahead. Many people didn’t know a single person infected with coronavirus as recently as a few weeks ago….MORE
How Bond Rallies Help Investors Amid Market Pullbacks | February 24, 2020
After weeks of reaching one new record high after another, the U.S. stock market has begun to pull back. Investors are reacting to headlines on the spread of the novel coronavirus around the globe, now officially known as COVID-19, as well as…MORE
Why the Economy Is Stable Despite the Public Health Emergency | February 10, 2020
The stock market continues to react to coronavirus headlines on a daily basis — with both negative and positive market swings. As the death toll rises (primarily in China at the moment), the fact that this is a human tragedy and not just an economic…MORE
Why Investors Shouldn’t Overreact to Recent Headlines | February 3, 2020
We’re only a few weeks into the new year and global headlines have already begun to rattle markets. As of Monday’s open, U.S. markets had pulled back about 2.5% from recent peaks while interest rates had declined by about one-third of a percent…MORE
Why Global Diversification Is Important Despite the Coronavirus | January 27, 2020
Global stocks are in the red this year due to fears of the spreading coronavirus and geopolitical instability. The Chinese stock market, at the epicenter of the public health crisis, and emerging markets more broadly, have taken the brunt of the hit…MORE
Why Investor Discipline Matters When Markets Are Calm | January 17, 2020
The stock market has performed well not only over the past year, but since the beginning of 2017. Over this three-year period, the S&P 500 has risen by over 45%. Investors who were able to stay invested through the volatility of late 2018 and during…MORE
Advanced Planning
Identifying Your Property/Casualty Insurance Gaps
Standard insurance policies cannot adequately address complex needs. Here are 5 key questions that can reveal critical coverage gaps….MORE
Loss Harvesting Season Is All Year Long
Don’t just wait for December to take advantage of great tax mitigation opportunities. For most investors in U.S. stocks and other risk assets, 2019 ended up being a surprisingly strong year, despite dire warnings about the inverted yield curve…MORE
Incorporating Philanthropy into Your Financial Plan
Purposeful philanthropy is the art of thoughtfully, intentionally and purposefully integrating the passion, spirit and commitment of philanthropy into the fabric of our family system…MORE
White Papers
Wealth Management and Retirement Planning Strategies for Successful Dentists
After conducting interviews with more than two dozen successful dentists in the New York City metro area, it’s clear the profession is going through a tidal wave of changes—not all of them pleasant…MORE
How Surgeons Can Prepare for a ‘Work Optional’ Retirement
Declining profits combined with growing feelings of dissatisfaction and powerlessness among surgeons has many considering early retirement. Surgeons often find themselves competing with insurance companies and hospitals for the same dollars and…MORE