The New Cold War | March 12, 2022

Short-Term Humanitarian Problem & Long-Term Economic Problem Hopes were raised, then dashed, and raised yet again this week as President Zelensky took NATO off the table for Ukraine and put a new negotiation on the table. The potential glitch appears to be the demand that ‘not one inch’ of Ukraine is lost (we’re unsure where […]
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Sleeping With the Enemy | February 26, 2022

Sleeping With the Enemy The U.S. and Europe are now beginning to pay the price for their inability, or unwillingness, to recognize the growing dependence of Western economies on political adversaries. The economic connections between Russia and the U.S. and EU have complicated the situation and have skewed sanctions to the weakside thus far. Sanctions […]
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Embracing Risk | January 29, 2022

Embracing Risk After operating in an environment where risks were clearly backstopped by the Federal Reserve. For investors, the world we have known for at least the last 13 years was on course for a fundamental change. The message that investors should be hearing loud and clear is that that there are risks that can’t […]
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Crazy Headlines of the Week | October 23, 2021

Crazy Headlines of the Week This week seemed to bring headline after headline that simply caused us to mutter “this is crazy”. ‘Shortage’ appears to be the key word in those stories, whether it is shortage of goods or commodities or the shortage of common sense in Congress. And who knows what’s going on in […]
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When Will They Ever Learn? | September 25, 2021

When Will They Ever Learn? The title is a line from Pete Seeger’s old folk song “Where have all The Flowers Gone?”, which has been recorded by many artists over the years. Whether we speak of war and peace, as the song does, or economies, it is a cyclical world. The past is typically prologue. […]
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Asset Class Return Projections | July 3, 2021

Asset Class Return Projections The higher asset prices rise, the lower the expected return on an asset is. That sounds counter intuitive, but if assets rise to their true value, then the higher the price goes, the less upside there is left, i.e., expected returns are lower. This concept is important as many asset prices […]
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Can China Reverse the Current Inflation Trend? | May 29, 2021

Can China Reverse the Current Inflation Trend? Although supply chain disruptions are clearly a contributing factor to current inflation, China’s influence on inflation should not be discounted. Prices are still significantly higher, but have recently fallen, coinciding with Chinese authorities cracking down on commodity speculation. The recent correction does NOT mean we can stop worrying […]
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