Don’t Jump to Conclusions

Don’t Jump to Conclusions Friday’s IT blackout was another great lesson from the school of ‘You Never Know What’s Going to Happen Next’. Surprises happen all the time, but despite that fact, there are a lot of assumptions about the future embedded in the market today. Some of the big ones are: The economy is […]
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Extremes

Extremes The Billy Joel channel is back on Sirius XM this month (channel 79, if you care) and it has become my go to channel in the car. Thursday, on my way home, they played “I go to Extremes” and I couldn’t help but think about the stock market. Markets tend to go to extremes, […]
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Sudden Impact

Sudden Impact The past month has been a period of “sudden impacts”, both politically and economically. Over the next several months, both should reach some resolution. Politics and Markets Everyone has their opinion of the political situation in the US, most of which are not especially positive. We always try to avoid politics, but the […]
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Set it, But Don’t Forget It

Set it, But Don’t Forget It Most 401ks (and 403bs) are structured to funnel participants into indexed funds. The goal is to push them into a ‘no think’, diversified portfolio, often designed to alter the mix of stocks and bonds automatically as they age. While interest rates came crashing down, the strategy looked like pure […]
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Discounts

Discounts The allure of getting a bargain is universal. Everybody loves a discount. Even when investing in stocks or bonds, you’d love to buy at a discount. The problem is that the discounts in financial markets are much less obvious than in the grocery store. The value of any financial asset can be estimated by […]
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All Roads Lead to Rome

All Roads Lead to Rome The Fed came out with their new ‘dot plot’ this week and based on the results, you’d think the economy is just rolling along. But initial unemployment claims were telling another story as initial claims hit 242,000last week, well above the 225,000 estimate, and is now trending upward once again. […]
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Tightwire Act

Tightwire Act The Fed could be walking a tight wire. The state of the labor market is critical for Fed policy. As the labor market remained tight, the Fed could afford to be patient with rate cuts to make sure inflation does not revive. But a Bloomberg economist is taking exception to the idea that […]
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