You Can Never Go Home Again

You Can Never Go Home Again Our title this week shares the name of Thomas Wolfe’s 1940 posthumously published novel. It carries a universal theme: time always marches forward, never backward. You can never go back home. The Middle East may be facing such a moment. War is not new or different in the Middle […]
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Brains to Brawn

Brains to Brawn While hyperscalers (Amazon -AMZN, Alphabet- GOOGL, Meta – META, and Microsoft – MSFT) and NVIDIA (NVDA) continue to command headlines and trillions in market valuation, the real stock market action has shifted toward smaller companies solving critical datacenter bottlenecks. The first AI bottleneck was Nvidia chips, the brains of AI, but the […]
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Iran Forced to the Negotiating Table

Iran Forced to the Negotiating Table We believe the standoff in the Middle East may be reaching a critical inflection point. Early reports on April 24 indicate that Iran is returning to the negotiating table in Islamabad. While diplomatic pressure is a factor, we suspect the real driver is a “ticking clock” deep underground: the […]
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Tick Tock

Tick Tock Oil wells do not operate like water spigots; damaged infrastructure does not get repaired overnight. It still takes weeks for tankers to reach their destinations once the Strait is eventually opened. With each passing day, the ability of the U.S. economy to remain relatively unaffected is degraded. Tick tock. The ceasefire had barely […]
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Crude Awakening

Crude Awakening Market expectations shifted notably this week as interest rates fell and the link between bonds and oil prices—prevalent since the start of the Iran War—broke down. Since the start of the conflict, surging crude had kept traders on alert for renewed inflationary pressure and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. However, by the end […]
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AI Ascendancy

AI Ascendancy From an economic perspective, the promise of artificial intelligence has been the ability to increase productivity following a decade or more of very low productivity growth. What is productivity? Productivity is critical to economic growth because it allows the economy to produce more goods and services with the same, or even less, resources. […]
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War, Trump & Investing

War, Trump & Investing The S&P Index broke through a key technical support level on Thursday this week, dipping below the 200 day moving average, and down about 5% from the peak. That break was confirmed by an ugly Friday, as traders clearly did not want to go home long over the weekend. At the […]
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