Searching for Goldilocks | August 7, 2021

Searching for Goldilocks While we are currently at peak growth, there is no consensus about where we go from here. The bulls are getting bearish and vice versa. There is fear of growing too fast and incurring the wrath of the Fed with higher interest rates, which would pressure stocks. Likewise, there is fear of […]
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The Bond Market Looks Confused | July 31, 2021

The Bond Market Looks Confused Market sentiment has been flip-flopping back and forth between inflation concerns and economic concerns. The very rapid economic recovery has outpaced a COVID constrained supply chain and caused price increases and inflation concerns. Now, the COVID acceleration and rising prices are beginning to slow demand (see the recent housing data) […]
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Cross-Currents | July 17, 2021

Cross-Currents The post-pandemic world will be different. Cross-currents are everywhere and how this settles is anything but clear, but ultimately everything resolves and typically not at the extremes. The economy is recovering, but persistent government intervention continues to cause market distortions. This has led to excesses in markets and very high asset valuations. As portfolio […]
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Why Are Government Bond Yields Declining? | July 10, 2021

Why are government bond yields declining? Is the new Delta Variant a threat to the global economic recovery? What should we expect from the upcoming earnings season? What we found to be most interesting, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on June 16th, is government bond interest rates have been on a decline (please see […]
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Asset Class Return Projections | July 3, 2021

Asset Class Return Projections The higher asset prices rise, the lower the expected return on an asset is. That sounds counter intuitive, but if assets rise to their true value, then the higher the price goes, the less upside there is left, i.e., expected returns are lower. This concept is important as many asset prices […]
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Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021

Peak Growth and What Comes Next Economic growth has been extraordinary, albeit from a very low, pandemic-induced base, and concerns of inflation have been front and center. We are starting to see talk of ‘peak growth’, meaning that we could be exiting the early part of the economic cycle (i.e., early, fast recovery) and we […]
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Stepping Back | June 12, 2021

Stepping Back Stocks are expensive and inflation combined with low rates increases risk in bond portfolios. We’ve been spoiled by unusually high returns for a long time. It’s time to temper expectations. Alternative Investments can help manage risk and produce reasonable returns. It’s very easy to get caught up in the day-to-day, week-to-week action in […]
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