A Brief History of Debt

A Brief History of Debt (and Why it Matters) The last few weeks have looked a lot like 2022, which was the worst year for the 60/40 portfolio since 1937. I could write a book detailing the missteps of Congress and the Fed that have led us here, but there isn’t time for that, so […]
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The One to Watch

The One to Watch  In the face of ’no news’, we have seen a continuing rise in long term treasury bond rates (and decline in bond prices). This week, markets were squarely focused on the potential for this trend to continue that sent stock prices reeling once again, putting a crimp on diversified portfolios. So […]
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Implications of a Fracturing Global Economy

Implications of a Fracturing Global Economy Our comments each week typically revolve around shorter term issues but this week we want to spend some time thinking longer term, much longer term. The catalyst for this shift was a speech given this week by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), which discusses the […]
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Cash Reserves

Cash Reserves What is a cash reserve? A cash reserve is a pool of funds (and sometimes credit) that you hold in a readily available form to meet emergency and other highly urgent, short-term needs. Sometimes, it is referred to as an emergency or contingency fund. Caution: Terminology is important here because contingencies often are […]
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What Does a Strong Dollar Mean for the US Economy?

What Does a Strong Dollar Mean for the U.S. Economy? In late September 2022, the U.S. dollar hit  a 20-year high in an index that measures  its value against six major currencies: the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and the Swiss franc. At the same time, a […]
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Often Wrong, Never in Doubt | March 19, 2022

Often Wrong, Never in Doubt Economic projections are rarely easy and are most difficult when most needed. The Fed is forecasting an economic ‘soft landing’ (they NEVER forecast a recession!). The reactive Fed is now behind the curve – that is, reacting late to the inflationary surge, but it expects economic growth to continue unabated. […]
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