Often Wrong, Never in Doubt | March 19, 2022

Often Wrong, Never in Doubt Economic projections are rarely easy and are most difficult when most needed. The Fed is forecasting an economic ‘soft landing’ (they NEVER forecast a recession!). The reactive Fed is now behind the curve – that is, reacting late to the inflationary surge, but it expects economic growth to continue unabated. […]
READ POST

Embracing Risk | January 29, 2022

Embracing Risk After operating in an environment where risks were clearly backstopped by the Federal Reserve. For investors, the world we have known for at least the last 13 years was on course for a fundamental change. The message that investors should be hearing loud and clear is that that there are risks that can’t […]
READ POST

Wherever You Go, There You Are | November 27, 2021

Wherever You Go, There You Are At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we find the current market valuation to be very high. But rather than just say that, we thought it might be helpful to give some perspective around that comment. (Please note that this comment was penned prior to the market […]
READ POST

The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic | November 6, 2021

The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic. Tapering simply means that the Fed will reduce, and eventually eliminate, the extraordinary accommodation supplied to financial markets since the beginning of the pandemic. That accommodation was in the form of open market purchases of both Treasury bonds and mortgage backed bonds (known as QE […]
READ POST

Can Inflation Pop an Over-Inflated Stock Market? | October 2, 2021

Can Inflation Pop an Over-Inflated Stock Market? “By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” – John Maynard Keynes Over the last 20 years, an era known for low inflation, the CPI Index has nonetheless managed to increase about 53%. That is, […]
READ POST

Tapering is Not a Fashion Statement | August 28, 2021

Tapering is Not a Fashion Statement There’s been a lot of talk about tapering lately and we’re not talking about the slim fit that is the style for men these days, we’re talking about the Fed’s balance sheet. Here’s what you need to know. For most of the period from late 2008 to today, the […]
READ POST

The Bond Market Looks Confused | July 31, 2021

The Bond Market Looks Confused Market sentiment has been flip-flopping back and forth between inflation concerns and economic concerns. The very rapid economic recovery has outpaced a COVID constrained supply chain and caused price increases and inflation concerns. Now, the COVID acceleration and rising prices are beginning to slow demand (see the recent housing data) […]
READ POST