Going Down

Going Down Next week is the big Fed rate cut decision, so this was the last week of data to influence that decision. In our view, the data this week was not bad enough to call for a 50 basis point cut (bps are basis points and a basis point is 1/100 of a percent) […]
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The Elephant in the Room

The Elephant in the Room We have long held that the Fed has been the dominant force in both the stock and bond markets. Rates going down? Then markets are moving up, and vice versa. That has generally been true since the recovery started in 2009. More recently, the Fed has taken a back seat. […]
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Can’t Wait!

Can’t Wait! With Thanksgiving behind us, Christmas looms as the next big event. Is this a Santa Claus rally or the beginning of a new bull market? One thing we know about this market is that Wall St. is very much like those kids expecting Santa Claus’s arrival. They can’t wait. It seems this market […]
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U-Turns

U-Turns For the last 18 months, single data points have regularly surprised the markets in both directions, inciting highly uncertain investors to project forward a “changed” economic outlook. This has led to rapid whipsaws of both bond and stock prices, and this past week was no exception. The CPI report triggered a substantial decline in […]
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A Question of Balance

A Question of Balance Balance Sheets are the Rodney Dangerfield of finance – no respect. Everyone pays attention to income statements. Did earnings miss or beat expectations? Balance sheets, on the other hand, are rarely, if ever, discussed. The U.S., like corporations, sets a budget each year, but unlike corporations, there is often little regard […]
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We Didn’t Start the Fire

We Didn’t Start the Fire… The whole world appears to be burning these days. Ukraine remains embroiled in war; the Middle East is erupting (again); mortgage rates hit 8%; inflation; the President is a bit fuzzy; the Republican House can’t find a Speaker; crime is up; the U.S. (and the entire world) is drowning in […]
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A Brief History of Debt

A Brief History of Debt (and Why it Matters) The last few weeks have looked a lot like 2022, which was the worst year for the 60/40 portfolio since 1937. I could write a book detailing the missteps of Congress and the Fed that have led us here, but there isn’t time for that, so […]
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