Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021

Peak Growth and What Comes Next Economic growth has been extraordinary, albeit from a very low, pandemic-induced base, and concerns of inflation have been front and center. We are starting to see talk of ‘peak growth’, meaning that we could be exiting the early part of the economic cycle (i.e., early, fast recovery) and we […]
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Back to the Future | May 15, 2021

Back to the Future Inflation is an enemy we have not seen for a long time. Housing inflation can be particularly harmful because housing is about 17% of GDP. Building costs are rising rapidly. Existing home prices are rising rapidly. Unless incomes rise rapidly too, we are headed for a fall. Last week we discussed […]
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Staying Focused on the Long-Term | April 24, 2021

Staying Focused on the Long-Term The past few weeks have seen one blockbuster economic report after another. From the 916,000 jobs that were added in March, to retail sales jumping 9.8% month-over-month, these are some of the best economic numbers we could see in a lifetime. At the same time, much of this was anticipated due […]
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Markets Are Fickle – Bank of America Fund Manager Survey | April 17, 2021

Markets Are Fickle – BofA Fund Manager Survey Perceived risks are shifting away from interest rates and inflation. The latest concern is ‘Peak Economic Growth’ implying that things can’t get much better. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen. The time to re-balance portfolios is approaching. Last week […]
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Are Soaring Growth Estimates Already Priced In? | April 10, 2021

Are Soaring Growth Estimates Already Priced In? GDP Growth is expected to soar based on vaccination progress, consumer recovery and an easy comparison with last year. With a fresh run of stimulus checks delivered, or about to be delivered, and pandemic fatigue rampant, it isn’t hard to imagine at least a mini-boom over the next […]
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Economy: Full Steam Ahead | April 3, 2021

Economy: Full Steam Ahead Unemployment remains high, but continuing claims remain in a downtrend. GDP is not back to pre-pandemic trendline, but early indicators say we are getting close. After the massive GDP decline last year, we should expect well above trendline growth this year as long as the vaccines work their magic. Investors remain […]
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