An Alternative View of the World | December 11, 2021

An Alternative View of the World The consensus view on Wall Street is that the Fed is dovish and economic growth is robust and both will remain so. That view is supportive of additional stock market gains in 2022. We’ve been around long enough to know that the consensus never sees the market top coming. […]
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Economic Growth Weakens While Inflation Rises | September 18, 2021

Economic Growth Weakens While Inflation Rises Why may we see economic growth continue to weaken in the coming months? Delta Variant upsurge causes consumers to pair back spending Unemployment benefits ending Hurricane Ida effects Looming government shutdown Why may inflation continue to rise? Material shortages Labor shortages Supply chain delays In our view, we believe […]
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Take a Test Drive… | August 21, 2021

Take a Test Drive… As much as we hate dealing with car salespeople, we love the test drive. We imagine ourselves driving down the street waving to friends in our favorite, brand new car. No doubt, that’s fun, but in the end, it’s just a car. Maybe it’s time we started to feel the same […]
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Searching for Goldilocks | August 7, 2021

Searching for Goldilocks While we are currently at peak growth, there is no consensus about where we go from here. The bulls are getting bearish and vice versa. There is fear of growing too fast and incurring the wrath of the Fed with higher interest rates, which would pressure stocks. Likewise, there is fear of […]
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Why Are Government Bond Yields Declining? | July 10, 2021

Why are government bond yields declining? Is the new Delta Variant a threat to the global economic recovery? What should we expect from the upcoming earnings season? What we found to be most interesting, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on June 16th, is government bond interest rates have been on a decline (please see […]
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Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021

Peak Growth and What Comes Next Economic growth has been extraordinary, albeit from a very low, pandemic-induced base, and concerns of inflation have been front and center. We are starting to see talk of ‘peak growth’, meaning that we could be exiting the early part of the economic cycle (i.e., early, fast recovery) and we […]
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Back to the Future | May 15, 2021

Back to the Future Inflation is an enemy we have not seen for a long time. Housing inflation can be particularly harmful because housing is about 17% of GDP. Building costs are rising rapidly. Existing home prices are rising rapidly. Unless incomes rise rapidly too, we are headed for a fall. Last week we discussed […]
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