Do Tariffs Really Work? What History & Markets Say

Do Tariffs Really Work? What History & Markets Say Understanding Tariffs: Their Economic and Market Impact With tariffs now front and center, history shows they have had mixed effects on the economy and markets. While past examples like Smoot-Hawley were disastrous, Trump’s tariffs did not derail economic growth or markets. If Trump 2.0 leads to […]
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Bullish Post-Election; But Obstacles Remain

Bullish Post-Election; But Obstacles Remain We’ve held a positive outlook on the equity markets leading into the election, and recent developments have only strengthened our conviction. Here’s why we’re optimistic about continued growth in the U.S. Equity market: Strong Earnings Outlook: Corporate earnings for 2024 are solid, and forecasts for the remainder of this year […]
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The Verdict

The Verdict Last week we mentioned the Wall Street adage ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ and wondered how markets would react to the first rate cut. The answer still isn’t clear. On Wednesday, the market swung wildly right after the 50 bps rate cut was announced. That is typical right after a Fed announcement, […]
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Here We Go Again

Here We Go Again It was just a month ago when weak nonfarm payroll data was released and markets swooned. It wasn’t the only reason; the unwind of the Yen carry trade also had an impact, but the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) number rekindled growth concerns, albeit briefly. Since then Fed Chair Powell has shifted the […]
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Turning Point

Turning Point In Friday’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Powell confirmed what the stock market has been anticipating – it is time to adjust monetary policy, that is, lower interest rates. By the time the first cut is made in September, it will have been almost a year since the Fed […]
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Sudden Impact

Sudden Impact The past month has been a period of “sudden impacts”, both politically and economically. Over the next several months, both should reach some resolution. Politics and Markets Everyone has their opinion of the political situation in the US, most of which are not especially positive. We always try to avoid politics, but the […]
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What, Me Worry?

What, Me Worry? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held their meeting this week and as usual, it created some wild swings on Wall Street. What caused the ruckus this time was a market that had been leaning toward fewer and fewer rates cuts and some early chatter about maybe the next move had to […]
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