SNAP Judgement | May 28, 2022

SNAP Judgment After reporting slightly disappointing earnings on April 21, just over a month later, on May 23, SNAP, Inc. (owner of social media app SnapChat – ask your kids if you are not familiar) had this to say: “Since we issued guidance on April 21, 2022, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster […]
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Looking for One Foot Bars | May 14, 2022

Looking for One Foot Bars After a difficult start to 2022, the tone of markets has become decidedly worse over the last 2 weeks, notwithstanding the rally on Friday, as markets appear to be shifting their focus from an inflation problem to a growth problem (i.e. a looming recession). The S&P 500 is now down […]
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Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day | May 7, 2022

Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day While central bankers are very smart, they are far from infallible. Throughout the history of central banks, policy errors are common. The choice central banks are making now is between focusing on core inflation (excluding food and energy). This allows food and energy inflation to run […]
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This is Not the Recession You are Looking For | April 30, 2022

This is Not the Recession You are Looking For Q1 preliminary GDP estimate shocks at -1.4%, vs. expectations of about +1.0% We have been saying growth is decelerating, but Q1 is not as bad as it first appears PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have reverted to pre-pandemic levels The pandemic recovery continues to make data twitchy […]
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Trees Don’t Grow to the Sky | April 23, 2022

Trees Don’t Grow to the Sky Netflix was down almost 40% this week as paid subscribers declined Q-to-Q for the first time It wasn’t hard to see this coming, although it was very difficult to time precisely The larger a company becomes, the harder it is to maintain rapid growth But Wall Street doesn’t change; […]
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