Cross-Currents | July 17, 2021

Cross-Currents The post-pandemic world will be different. Cross-currents are everywhere and how this settles is anything but clear, but ultimately everything resolves and typically not at the extremes. The economy is recovering, but persistent government intervention continues to cause market distortions. This has led to excesses in markets and very high asset valuations. As portfolio […]
READ POST

Why Are Government Bond Yields Declining? | July 10, 2021

Why are government bond yields declining? Is the new Delta Variant a threat to the global economic recovery? What should we expect from the upcoming earnings season? What we found to be most interesting, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on June 16th, is government bond interest rates have been on a decline (please see […]
READ POST

Asset Class Return Projections | July 3, 2021

Asset Class Return Projections The higher asset prices rise, the lower the expected return on an asset is. That sounds counter intuitive, but if assets rise to their true value, then the higher the price goes, the less upside there is left, i.e., expected returns are lower. This concept is important as many asset prices […]
READ POST

Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021

Peak Growth and What Comes Next Economic growth has been extraordinary, albeit from a very low, pandemic-induced base, and concerns of inflation have been front and center. We are starting to see talk of ‘peak growth’, meaning that we could be exiting the early part of the economic cycle (i.e., early, fast recovery) and we […]
READ POST

Stepping Back | June 12, 2021

Stepping Back Stocks are expensive and inflation combined with low rates increases risk in bond portfolios. We’ve been spoiled by unusually high returns for a long time. It’s time to temper expectations. Alternative Investments can help manage risk and produce reasonable returns. It’s very easy to get caught up in the day-to-day, week-to-week action in […]
READ POST

Is Big Oil Dead? | June 5, 2021

Is Big Oil Dead? Energy stocks have been on a tear in 2021 as the economy re-opens. The Biden Administration is pushing hard for Green Technology. Ironically, that could make oil and gas reserves more valuable. The best performing sector this year has been energy, rising almost 6% this week alone and 47% YTD, as […]
READ POST

Can China Reverse the Current Inflation Trend? | May 29, 2021

Can China Reverse the Current Inflation Trend? Although supply chain disruptions are clearly a contributing factor to current inflation, China’s influence on inflation should not be discounted. Prices are still significantly higher, but have recently fallen, coinciding with Chinese authorities cracking down on commodity speculation. The recent correction does NOT mean we can stop worrying […]
READ POST