Here We Go Again

Here We Go Again It was just a month ago when weak nonfarm payroll data was released and markets swooned. It wasn’t the only reason; the unwind of the Yen carry trade also had an impact, but the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) number rekindled growth concerns, albeit briefly. Since then Fed Chair Powell has shifted the […]
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WWBD?

WWBD? The stock market appears at a cross-roads. On one hand, many believe that we are about to stick the soft landing, in which case, late cycle stocks, energy, materials, health care, and consumer staples, should be bought because these sectors have historically done well in the late cycle. On the other hand, others worry […]
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Flip the Script

Flip the Script In the words of Ron Burgundy (“Anchorman”): “Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean that really got out of hand fast.” The soft-landing theme was fun while it lasted, but that script got flipped in a hurry by a series of weaker than expected economic data. The ISM (Institute fro Supply Management) manufacturing […]
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Don’t Jump to Conclusions

Don’t Jump to Conclusions Friday’s IT blackout was another great lesson from the school of ‘You Never Know What’s Going to Happen Next’. Surprises happen all the time, but despite that fact, there are a lot of assumptions about the future embedded in the market today. Some of the big ones are: The economy is […]
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Promised Land

Promised Land It was quiet, too quiet. The lead up to this week’s Fed interest rate announcement was downright boring. After months and months of agita every time the Fed got together to talk about interest rates, this time there was little doubt about what would happen or what the Fed would say. The assumption […]
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Coasting Down the Mountain | October 8, 2022

Coasting Down the Mountain While you probably don’t read the financial news every day, if you did, I suspect that by this point you would be surmising that the Fed is a bunch of bumbling idiots. I’m here to tell you that they are not. They are incredibly bright individuals that probably have too much […]
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Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day | May 7, 2022

Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day While central bankers are very smart, they are far from infallible. Throughout the history of central banks, policy errors are common. The choice central banks are making now is between focusing on core inflation (excluding food and energy). This allows food and energy inflation to run […]
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