Tick Tock

Tick Tock Oil wells do not operate like water spigots; damaged infrastructure does not get repaired overnight. It still takes weeks for tankers to reach their destinations once the Strait is eventually opened. With each passing day, the ability of the U.S. economy to remain relatively unaffected is degraded. Tick tock. The ceasefire had barely […]
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Crude Awakening

Crude Awakening Market expectations shifted notably this week as interest rates fell and the link between bonds and oil prices—prevalent since the start of the Iran War—broke down. Since the start of the conflict, surging crude had kept traders on alert for renewed inflationary pressure and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. However, by the end […]
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AI Ascendancy

AI Ascendancy From an economic perspective, the promise of artificial intelligence has been the ability to increase productivity following a decade or more of very low productivity growth. What is productivity? Productivity is critical to economic growth because it allows the economy to produce more goods and services with the same, or even less, resources. […]
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War, Trump & Investing

War, Trump & Investing The S&P Index broke through a key technical support level on Thursday this week, dipping below the 200 day moving average, and down about 5% from the peak. That break was confirmed by an ugly Friday, as traders clearly did not want to go home long over the weekend. At the […]
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Binary Outcomes

Binary Outcomes Energy markets, particularly oil, have produced some of the great supply and demand lessons that feed our understanding of economics. This one is no different. My first lesson came in the early 1970’s when I could only buy gas on odd numbered days (because my license plate ended in an odd number). I […]
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