This is Not the Recession You are Looking For | April 30, 2022

This is Not the Recession You are Looking For Q1 preliminary GDP estimate shocks at -1.4%, vs. expectations of about +1.0% We have been saying growth is decelerating, but Q1 is not as bad as it first appears PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have reverted to pre-pandemic levels The pandemic recovery continues to make data twitchy […]
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Often Wrong, Never in Doubt | March 19, 2022

Often Wrong, Never in Doubt Economic projections are rarely easy and are most difficult when most needed. The Fed is forecasting an economic ‘soft landing’ (they NEVER forecast a recession!). The reactive Fed is now behind the curve – that is, reacting late to the inflationary surge, but it expects economic growth to continue unabated. […]
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CPI Hits 7.5% : What it Means to Us… | February 12, 2022

CPI Hits 7.5% – What It Means to Us… Headline CPI for January surprised on the upside registering 7.5% vs. expectations of 7.3%. What makes it more of a surprise is that the day before, the ‘whisper number’ was that CPI would come in below expectations. The cause of the higher number is a scheduled […]
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Bear Market Bounces | February 5, 2022

Bear Market Bounces Investopedia describes a bear market rally as follows: “…a period inside of a bear market in which prices of stocks temporarily increase, sometimes quite sharply, before returning to new lows. This rise in prices is typically a short-lived increase, sometimes lasting anywhere from days to months, amidst an overall long-term downward trend […]
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