Something’s Got to Give | August 6, 2022

Something’s Got to Give There is an extraordinary dichotomy in market outlooks Bull Case: The growth slow-down has been priced in The consumer remains strong Labor market is still tight Inflation will recede Recession will be mild at worst, avoided at best Rates will decline soon, buy risk (stocks, bonds, RE, etc.) Bear Case: Valuations […]
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SNAP Judgement | May 28, 2022

SNAP Judgment After reporting slightly disappointing earnings on April 21, just over a month later, on May 23, SNAP, Inc. (owner of social media app SnapChat – ask your kids if you are not familiar) had this to say: “Since we issued guidance on April 21, 2022, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster […]
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This is Not the Recession You are Looking For | April 30, 2022

This is Not the Recession You are Looking For Q1 preliminary GDP estimate shocks at -1.4%, vs. expectations of about +1.0% We have been saying growth is decelerating, but Q1 is not as bad as it first appears PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have reverted to pre-pandemic levels The pandemic recovery continues to make data twitchy […]
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Staying Focused on the Long-Term | April 24, 2021

Staying Focused on the Long-Term The past few weeks have seen one blockbuster economic report after another. From the 916,000 jobs that were added in March, to retail sales jumping 9.8% month-over-month, these are some of the best economic numbers we could see in a lifetime. At the same time, much of this was anticipated due […]
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