Do you Believe in Miracles? | July 2, 2022

Do you Believe in Miracles? We just completed the worst first half stock performance since 1970. (See chart below.) To make matters worse, rates increased and bonds were also hit extremely hard. The result was that the ‘standard’ 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500 /40% Aggregate Bond Index) declined a record 16.1% in the first half. […]
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Looking for One Foot Bars | May 14, 2022

Looking for One Foot Bars After a difficult start to 2022, the tone of markets has become decidedly worse over the last 2 weeks, notwithstanding the rally on Friday, as markets appear to be shifting their focus from an inflation problem to a growth problem (i.e. a looming recession). The S&P 500 is now down […]
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Often Wrong, Never in Doubt | March 19, 2022

Often Wrong, Never in Doubt Economic projections are rarely easy and are most difficult when most needed. The Fed is forecasting an economic ‘soft landing’ (they NEVER forecast a recession!). The reactive Fed is now behind the curve – that is, reacting late to the inflationary surge, but it expects economic growth to continue unabated. […]
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It Gets Worse Before It Gets Better | January 15, 2022

It Gets Worse Before It Gets Better Sometimes Wall St. gets so involved in the details that it misses the forest for the trees. And then there are times when we are brought back to the simple basics and that happened this week in a webinar from DoubleLine Capital founder, Jeff Gundlach. Here is the […]
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Wherever You Go, There You Are | November 27, 2021

Wherever You Go, There You Are At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we find the current market valuation to be very high. But rather than just say that, we thought it might be helpful to give some perspective around that comment. (Please note that this comment was penned prior to the market […]
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The Bond Market Looks Confused | July 31, 2021

The Bond Market Looks Confused Market sentiment has been flip-flopping back and forth between inflation concerns and economic concerns. The very rapid economic recovery has outpaced a COVID constrained supply chain and caused price increases and inflation concerns. Now, the COVID acceleration and rising prices are beginning to slow demand (see the recent housing data) […]
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Why Are Government Bond Yields Declining? | July 10, 2021

Why are government bond yields declining? Is the new Delta Variant a threat to the global economic recovery? What should we expect from the upcoming earnings season? What we found to be most interesting, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on June 16th, is government bond interest rates have been on a decline (please see […]
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