Bullish Post-Election; But Obstacles Remain

Bullish Post-Election; But Obstacles Remain We’ve held a positive outlook on the equity markets leading into the election, and recent developments have only strengthened our conviction. Here’s why we’re optimistic about continued growth in the U.S. Equity market: Strong Earnings Outlook: Corporate earnings for 2024 are solid, and forecasts for the remainder of this year […]
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Turning Point

Turning Point In Friday’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Powell confirmed what the stock market has been anticipating – it is time to adjust monetary policy, that is, lower interest rates. By the time the first cut is made in September, it will have been almost a year since the Fed […]
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The Elephant in the Room

The Elephant in the Room We have long held that the Fed has been the dominant force in both the stock and bond markets. Rates going down? Then markets are moving up, and vice versa. That has generally been true since the recovery started in 2009. More recently, the Fed has taken a back seat. […]
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Pre-emptive Pivot

Pre-emptive Pivot The news this week was the Fed (again) with the surprise change of anticipating rate cuts. Nick Timiraos, the so called ‘Fed Whisperer’ at the Wall Street Journal wrote about Chair Powell’s comments: “Dec 1: ‘It would be premature to … speculate on when policy might ease.’ Dec 13: Rate cuts are something […]
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U-Turns

U-Turns For the last 18 months, single data points have regularly surprised the markets in both directions, inciting highly uncertain investors to project forward a “changed” economic outlook. This has led to rapid whipsaws of both bond and stock prices, and this past week was no exception. The CPI report triggered a substantial decline in […]
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A Question of Balance

A Question of Balance Balance Sheets are the Rodney Dangerfield of finance – no respect. Everyone pays attention to income statements. Did earnings miss or beat expectations? Balance sheets, on the other hand, are rarely, if ever, discussed. The U.S., like corporations, sets a budget each year, but unlike corporations, there is often little regard […]
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No Surprises

No Surprises The Fed meeting in Jackson Hole continues as this is written, but Chair Powell’s comments on Friday morning, the ‘highlight’ of the confab, were no surprise. Chair Powell reiterated that the inflation target is 2%, not 3% as some on Wall St. have speculated, and with rates at or near restrictive territory, any […]
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