Bit by Bit

Bit by Bit Our past comments about Bitcoin have centered on the theme that crypto is not ready for prime time. While we may have looked a little naïve as bitcoin shot up to almost $70,000, we look a bit more prescient now. FTX, a leading crypto exchange, has filed for bankruptcy, and the collateral […]
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Coasting (Further) Down the Mountain | November 5, 2022

Coasting (Further) Down the Mountain The intention this week was to let the market know what it essentially already knew – that this would be the last 0.75% rate increase and that the Fed would begin to slow rate increases. Wednesday’s FOMC Statement was perceived as dovish and immediately sent stocks higher. The presser had […]
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Good News is Good News is Bad News | August 13, 2022

Good News is Good News is Bad News A lower-than-expected CPI report for July (8.5% vs 8.7% expected) had markets rallying in expectation of interest rates quickly coming back. But stronger markets make the Fed’s job more difficult, potentially leading to more rate increases than expected. It is unlikely that would be received well by […]
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Searching for Goldilocks | July 9, 2022

Searching for Goldilocks Watching the stock market these days is very easy, but also very frustrating. Good news is bad news and vice versa. Case in point was Friday’s employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 372,000 in June, well above the 250,000 Street estimate and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. What was the reaction […]
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Do you Believe in Miracles? | July 2, 2022

Do you Believe in Miracles? We just completed the worst first half stock performance since 1970. (See chart below.) To make matters worse, rates increased and bonds were also hit extremely hard. The result was that the ‘standard’ 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500 /40% Aggregate Bond Index) declined a record 16.1% in the first half. […]
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Looking for One Foot Bars | May 14, 2022

Looking for One Foot Bars After a difficult start to 2022, the tone of markets has become decidedly worse over the last 2 weeks, notwithstanding the rally on Friday, as markets appear to be shifting their focus from an inflation problem to a growth problem (i.e. a looming recession). The S&P 500 is now down […]
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