Going Nowhere, Fast

Going Nowhere, Fast Many investors tend to get lost in the day-to-day ups and downs of the market and are often spooked or too excited about single days. Yes, there are, occasionally, single days that are important, but they are few and far between. What matters is how all those ups and downs add up. […]
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Frayed, but Resilient

Frayed, but Resilient Over the past 3 weeks the economy and the banking system have become more frayed, yet markets have remained resilient. So, this week, we attempt to make sense out of what doesn’t make any sense. Our recession call remains in place as many economic indicators point toward a recession. Here are a […]
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The Apollo 13 Problem

The Apollo 13 Problem In Jim Lovell’s book, Apollo 13, he describes one of the final hurdles the crew faced as they attempted to return their crippled spacecraft to earth. The crew had to approach Earth’s atmosphere at an angle no shallower than 5.3 degrees, and no steeper than 7.7 degrees. If re-entry was shallower […]
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Bottom’s Up!

Bottoms Up! In his classic 1934 book “Security Analysis”, Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing (and a mentor to Warren Buffet), said something to the effect that in the short run the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. Eighty-nine years later, that comment still […]
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What Do You Think?

What Do You Think? Our inboxes are full of market and economy projections for 2023, most of which are completely worthless. In early December, 2021, Reuters ran a story with this opening line: “The S&P 500 will gain 7.5% between now and the end of 2022 to finish at 4,910, driven by earnings and economic […]
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Bit by Bit

Bit by Bit Our past comments about Bitcoin have centered on the theme that crypto is not ready for prime time. While we may have looked a little naïve as bitcoin shot up to almost $70,000, we look a bit more prescient now. FTX, a leading crypto exchange, has filed for bankruptcy, and the collateral […]
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Coasting (Further) Down the Mountain | November 5, 2022

Coasting (Further) Down the Mountain The intention this week was to let the market know what it essentially already knew – that this would be the last 0.75% rate increase and that the Fed would begin to slow rate increases. Wednesday’s FOMC Statement was perceived as dovish and immediately sent stocks higher. The presser had […]
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