Choppy Waters

Choppy Waters After an amazing melt up since last November, the stock market has become choppy lately. When that happens, there is typically a ‘push-pull’ occurring that has the market uncertain of its next direction. In this case, the push higher is based on a growing economy and the presumably strong earnings that will bring. […]
READ POST

Things Are Not Always as They Appear

Things Are Not Always as They Appear There is an old saying about Wall Street prognosticators: Often Wrong, Never in Doubt. The first problem with prognostications is that they are typically very short-term oriented. The second problem is that they often hide counterintuitive facts. The third problem is they contain their own behavioral biases. Since […]
READ POST

It Was a New Day Yesterday

It Was a New Day Yesterday… But it’s an old day now (with apologies to Jethro Tull). Financial markets are dominated by cycles. In 2023, the Magnificent 7 dominated the stock market. Those seven stocks had a terrific year, while the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 collectively struggled to keep their heads above […]
READ POST

Pre-emptive Pivot

Pre-emptive Pivot The news this week was the Fed (again) with the surprise change of anticipating rate cuts. Nick Timiraos, the so called ‘Fed Whisperer’ at the Wall Street Journal wrote about Chair Powell’s comments: “Dec 1: ‘It would be premature to … speculate on when policy might ease.’ Dec 13: Rate cuts are something […]
READ POST

And the Winner Is…

And the Winner Is… I read an interesting article on Morningstar that compares Cisco and NVIDIA, asking if Cisco’s fall from grace will be repeated by NVIDIA. The simple answer is – Yes, of course it will. The difficult question is when that will happen. Back at the peak of the internet bubble, as we transitioned […]
READ POST

Homebuilder Stocks Outperformance in 2023

Homebuilder Stocks Outperformance in 2023 Homebuilder stocks are performing well in 2023 due to several factors affecting the U.S. housing market: Tight Housing Market: The U.S. housing market is experiencing a tightening, with an already undersupplied housing market seeing strong demand, especially for new homes. This demand is further fueled by the fact that fewer […]
READ POST

Munger-isms

Munger-isms The term ‘down home billionaire’ would seem contradictory, unless you were familiar with Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s right-hand man at Berkshire Hathaway since 1978 and friend since 1959. Charlie Munger passed this week at age 99, just a few weeks short of his 100th birthday. Warren Buffett once said of Charlie” “Marches to the […]
READ POST