“There will be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done”

“There will be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done”1 Many people view the stock market as more gambling than investing, which is easy to understand as the market seems to constantly have unpredictable gyrations both up and down. If you want to gamble on the stock market, you certainly can, and many people […]
READ POST

Gradually, Then Suddenly

Gradually, Then Suddenly We’re getting more than a bit tired of the debt ceiling ‘debate’ (and we use that term very loosely). The sooner this comes to head and is ‘resolved’ (again, we use the term loosely), the better. Fundamentally, it is impossible to resolve our debt problem in the next 2-3 weeks. The current […]
READ POST

Going Nowhere, Fast

Going Nowhere, Fast Many investors tend to get lost in the day-to-day ups and downs of the market and are often spooked or too excited about single days. Yes, there are, occasionally, single days that are important, but they are few and far between. What matters is how all those ups and downs add up. […]
READ POST

Frayed, but Resilient

Frayed, but Resilient Over the past 3 weeks the economy and the banking system have become more frayed, yet markets have remained resilient. So, this week, we attempt to make sense out of what doesn’t make any sense. Our recession call remains in place as many economic indicators point toward a recession. Here are a […]
READ POST

The Apollo 13 Problem

The Apollo 13 Problem In Jim Lovell’s book, Apollo 13, he describes one of the final hurdles the crew faced as they attempted to return their crippled spacecraft to earth. The crew had to approach Earth’s atmosphere at an angle no shallower than 5.3 degrees, and no steeper than 7.7 degrees. If re-entry was shallower […]
READ POST

Bottom’s Up!

Bottoms Up! In his classic 1934 book “Security Analysis”, Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing (and a mentor to Warren Buffet), said something to the effect that in the short run the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. Eighty-nine years later, that comment still […]
READ POST

What Do You Think?

What Do You Think? Our inboxes are full of market and economy projections for 2023, most of which are completely worthless. In early December, 2021, Reuters ran a story with this opening line: “The S&P 500 will gain 7.5% between now and the end of 2022 to finish at 4,910, driven by earnings and economic […]
READ POST