Strong Expected Q3 Earnings On Deck

Strong Expected Q3 Earnings On Deck The past few weeks have not been pleasant, but a respite may be coming. Roughly 44% of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings next week, and a strong quarter is expected. While consensus expectations are setting a very high bar at 27% earnings growth, historical trends favor […]
READ POST

Hump Day

Hump Day The monumental AI trade could be reaching the height of its speculation. For the past several years, Wall Street and venture capital alike have poured billions into anything related to AI, driving valuations to astronomical heights based largely on promises, projections, and FOMO (fear of missing out). Evidence that we have reached a […]
READ POST

Tale of Two Markets

Tale of Two Markets It is the best of times for a handful of mega-cap tech giants, but for the average stock on Wall Street, it is decidedly the worst of times. It seems almost impossible, but as of the close on October 8, the S&P 500 is a mere 0.7% below it’s all time […]
READ POST

A Global Repricing of Money

A Global Repricing of Money Global interest rates are rising rapidly because of a structural shift fueled by stubborn inflation, swelling government deficits, and aggressive borrowing for artificial intelligence infrastructure. This upward pressure has ended the post-2008 era of cheap capital, forcing central banks and global markets to adjust to a higher-for-longer rate environment. The […]
READ POST

Is AI Spending Translating Into Profits for Companies?

Is AI Spending Translating Into Profits for Companies? Yes, but not everywhere, and certainly not equally. There is a tendency with every major technological cycle to gravitate toward one of two extremes. Either the technology is going to change everything immediately, or the enormous amount of spending proves we are in a bubble. I don’t […]
READ POST

Data Center Deficit: The Political Crisis Quietly Threatening AI

Data Center Deficit: The Political Crisis Quietly Threatening AI While investors fret over a potential financial bubble driven by soaring tech valuations and massive infrastructure spending, the true vulnerability of the artificial intelligence boom lies in the physical world. The critical bottleneck is not a lack of commercial demand or technological utility, but rather the […]
READ POST

Crowding Out: Competition for Capital

Crowding Out: Competition for Capital This week, the Treasury surprised markets when it said it would at least double the maximum size of certain buyback operations for 10- to 30-year securities, raising the cap from $2 billion to “at least” $4 billion per operation. The initial market reaction was straightforward: prices of long-dated Treasuries rose […]
READ POST