What Do You Think?

What Do You Think? Our inboxes are full of market and economy projections for 2023, most of which are completely worthless. In early December, 2021, Reuters ran a story with this opening line: “The S&P 500 will gain 7.5% between now and the end of 2022 to finish at 4,910, driven by earnings and economic […]
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What Does a Strong Dollar Mean for the US Economy?

What Does a Strong Dollar Mean for the U.S. Economy? In late September 2022, the U.S. dollar hit  a 20-year high in an index that measures  its value against six major currencies: the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and the Swiss franc. At the same time, a […]
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A Cross to Bear | October 15, 2022

A Cross to Bear Investors have navigated a difficult market all year and the third quarter was no exception. All major indices ended the quarter in bear market territory with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq declining 5.3%, 6.7%, and 4.1%, respectively, from July to September. With the dollar strengthening and the global economy slowing, […]
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Is Energy Inflation Tamed? | September 10, 2022

Is Energy Inflation Tamed? Spot WTI crude prices are down about 29% from the Ukraine Invasion peak back in March. Retail gasoline prices have come down about 25% from the peak earlier this year and diesel prices are down almost 13% from the peak. Those are all very meaningful declines, but all three are still […]
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Winner by Default | September 3, 2022

Winner by Default The early 20th century marked the move to dollar dominance, the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The U.S. played a key role in WWI, cementing its importance as a growing industrial nation. WWII sealed the deal when the U.S. had the last remaining industrial infrastructure left standing, because the ocean between […]
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Economy Killers? | June 11, 2022

Economy Killers? The CPI report for May was released on Friday and it showed that headline inflation rose 8.6% from May of last year, compared with 8.3% in April. Core inflation, that is, excluding food and energy, rose at 6.0% from last year, compared with 6.2% in April. This was a little higher than expectations […]
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Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way | June 4, 2022

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way Through history, leadership is enduring. Great leaders are always great leaders. But markets are different; leadership changes with regularity. What leads markets on the way up, typically leads on the way down too, but it doesn’t lead the next leg up. A common mistake investors make is […]
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