Sheltered from the Storm | September 24, 2022

Sheltered from the Storm The bear market rally in July and August had many people hopeful, but that rally has now disappeared and we are essentially back at the June lows on the S&P 500. All this has happened as the Fed has consistently raised interest rates to address inflation, which has sent the bond […]
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Move Along, Nothing to See Here | September 17, 2022

Move Along, Nothing to See Here Investors have been hanging on every word from the Federal Reserve for years as their policies have been the most consistent driver of markets, be it stocks, bonds, housing, private equity, etc. Some level of rate increases has been baked in by markets, but, of course, that level gyrates […]
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Winner by Default | September 3, 2022

Winner by Default The early 20th century marked the move to dollar dominance, the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The U.S. played a key role in WWI, cementing its importance as a growing industrial nation. WWII sealed the deal when the U.S. had the last remaining industrial infrastructure left standing, because the ocean between […]
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Do you Believe in Miracles? | July 2, 2022

Do you Believe in Miracles? We just completed the worst first half stock performance since 1970. (See chart below.) To make matters worse, rates increased and bonds were also hit extremely hard. The result was that the ‘standard’ 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500 /40% Aggregate Bond Index) declined a record 16.1% in the first half. […]
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How Long? How Bad? | June 18, 2022

How Long? How Bad? As we have stated numerous times, we are faced with a menu of bad options. After 20+ years of ever-increasing, Fed-induced, financial largesse, inflation has turned the tables and we face the inevitable reversal of that largesse. There are no good options. The Fed will remain optimistic to the end, but […]
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Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way | June 4, 2022

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way Through history, leadership is enduring. Great leaders are always great leaders. But markets are different; leadership changes with regularity. What leads markets on the way up, typically leads on the way down too, but it doesn’t lead the next leg up. A common mistake investors make is […]
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