Going Down

Going Down Next week is the big Fed rate cut decision, so this was the last week of data to influence that decision. In our view, the data this week was not bad enough to call for a 50 basis point cut (bps are basis points and a basis point is 1/100 of a percent) […]
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Turning Point

Turning Point In Friday’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Powell confirmed what the stock market has been anticipating – it is time to adjust monetary policy, that is, lower interest rates. By the time the first cut is made in September, it will have been almost a year since the Fed […]
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Flip the Script

Flip the Script In the words of Ron Burgundy (“Anchorman”): “Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean that really got out of hand fast.” The soft-landing theme was fun while it lasted, but that script got flipped in a hurry by a series of weaker than expected economic data. The ISM (Institute fro Supply Management) manufacturing […]
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Extremes

Extremes The Billy Joel channel is back on Sirius XM this month (channel 79, if you care) and it has become my go to channel in the car. Thursday, on my way home, they played “I go to Extremes” and I couldn’t help but think about the stock market. Markets tend to go to extremes, […]
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All Roads Lead to Rome

All Roads Lead to Rome The Fed came out with their new ‘dot plot’ this week and based on the results, you’d think the economy is just rolling along. But initial unemployment claims were telling another story as initial claims hit 242,000last week, well above the 225,000 estimate, and is now trending upward once again. […]
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Short Takes for a Long Weekend

Short Takes for a Long Weekend A Tentative Green Light The ‘most important event this week’ was the earnings report from AI leader, NVIDIA (NVDA) on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that earnings exceeded expectations once again, the company announced a 10-for-1 split and the stock hit a new high in excess of $1,000. […]
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What, Me Worry?

What, Me Worry? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held their meeting this week and as usual, it created some wild swings on Wall Street. What caused the ruckus this time was a market that had been leaning toward fewer and fewer rates cuts and some early chatter about maybe the next move had to […]
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