The Devil is in the Details

The Devil is in the Details Most of the time, taking note of headline economic data, like the number of new jobs created or the unemployment rate, is all you really need to stay abreast of what’s going on, but at economic inflection points, the data gets more muddled, and is often contradictory, at least […]
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Something’s Got to Give | August 6, 2022

Something’s Got to Give There is an extraordinary dichotomy in market outlooks Bull Case: The growth slow-down has been priced in The consumer remains strong Labor market is still tight Inflation will recede Recession will be mild at worst, avoided at best Rates will decline soon, buy risk (stocks, bonds, RE, etc.) Bear Case: Valuations […]
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A Compounding Problem | July 23, 2022

A Compounding Problem Globalization is ending as supply chains adjust to the realization of the risks posed by having energy needs (Europe) and essential products manufacturing (U.S.) dependent on a political adversary. This process of reshoring won’t be fast or easy, but the trend is now firmly established. Until that shift becomes reality, globalization continues […]
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