The Bond Market Looks Confused | July 31, 2021

The Bond Market Looks Confused Market sentiment has been flip-flopping back and forth between inflation concerns and economic concerns. The very rapid economic recovery has outpaced a COVID constrained supply chain and caused price increases and inflation concerns. Now, the COVID acceleration and rising prices are beginning to slow demand (see the recent housing data) […]
READ POST

Why Are Government Bond Yields Declining? | July 10, 2021

Why are government bond yields declining? Is the new Delta Variant a threat to the global economic recovery? What should we expect from the upcoming earnings season? What we found to be most interesting, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on June 16th, is government bond interest rates have been on a decline (please see […]
READ POST

Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021

Peak Growth and What Comes Next Economic growth has been extraordinary, albeit from a very low, pandemic-induced base, and concerns of inflation have been front and center. We are starting to see talk of ‘peak growth’, meaning that we could be exiting the early part of the economic cycle (i.e., early, fast recovery) and we […]
READ POST

Back to the Future | May 15, 2021

Back to the Future Inflation is an enemy we have not seen for a long time. Housing inflation can be particularly harmful because housing is about 17% of GDP. Building costs are rising rapidly. Existing home prices are rising rapidly. Unless incomes rise rapidly too, we are headed for a fall. Last week we discussed […]
READ POST

Markets Are Fickle – Bank of America Fund Manager Survey | April 17, 2021

Markets Are Fickle – BofA Fund Manager Survey Perceived risks are shifting away from interest rates and inflation. The latest concern is ‘Peak Economic Growth’ implying that things can’t get much better. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen. The time to re-balance portfolios is approaching. Last week […]
READ POST