Markets Are Fickle – Bank of America Fund Manager Survey | April 17, 2021

Markets Are Fickle – BofA Fund Manager Survey Perceived risks are shifting away from interest rates and inflation. The latest concern is ‘Peak Economic Growth’ implying that things can’t get much better. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen. The time to re-balance portfolios is approaching. Last week […]
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Are Soaring Growth Estimates Already Priced In? | April 10, 2021

Are Soaring Growth Estimates Already Priced In? GDP Growth is expected to soar based on vaccination progress, consumer recovery and an easy comparison with last year. With a fresh run of stimulus checks delivered, or about to be delivered, and pandemic fatigue rampant, it isn’t hard to imagine at least a mini-boom over the next […]
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Stocks Remain A Prisoner of Interest Rates | March 27, 2021

Stocks Remain A Prisoner of Interest Rates The stock market is following the bond market like a puppy. Rates down? Buy growth stocks. Rates up? Buy reflation stocks. U.S. growth estimates are rising, but they are falling in other developed markets. Unless something changes, rates are probably going nowhere. The economic experience in the U.S. […]
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The Long and Short of Interest Rates | February 27, 2021

The Long and Short of Interest Rates When the week started, it appeared that short-term rates would be the ‘story of the week’ due to a planned drain of Treasury cash (See “Are Negative Rates Coming Despite Fed Opposition”, below.) However, on Thursday, long-term rates took center stage as the 10-year yield jumped from a […]
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When it Absolutely, Positively Has to Be There… | February 20, 2021

When it Absolutely, Positively Has to Be There… Those old enough will probably recognize our title from the iconic Federal Express tagline ‘When it absolutely, positively has to be there overnight’. When the pandemic hit almost a year ago, one of the key words of the time was delivery. Groceries were delivered in record amounts, […]
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