The Elephant in the Room

The Elephant in the Room We have long held that the Fed has been the dominant force in both the stock and bond markets. Rates going down? Then markets are moving up, and vice versa. That has generally been true since the recovery started in 2009. More recently, the Fed has taken a back seat. […]
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Confused Yet?

Confused yet? It was a week of inconsistencies. Inflation has been down; now CPI and PPI are up. Retail sales were strong; now they are weak. Manufacturing PMIs are up; Industrial production is down. Lay-off announcements are up; initial jobless claims are down. For a data dependent Fed trying to time interest rate reductions, the […]
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Tug of War

Tug of War The stock market rally continued this week, but in between there was a lot of up and down action. The S&P 500 Index fell 1.6% on Wednesday, but still managed to gain 1.4% for the week as the market eventually managed to ignore the Fed’s rate cut delay. The yield on the […]
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Cryptonite?

Cryptonite? As of Jan 11, we now have several spot Bitcoin ETFs, making ownership of Bitcoin crypto currency as simple as buying a stock. As that day approached, the thought was that when this easy avenue for investment opened up, Bitcoin would jump in price as both institutional and retail investors piled in. On that […]
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Forecasters Agree to Disagree

Forecasters Agree to Disagree In this age of big data, it’s not uncommon to see an analysis like this made-up example: After a positive year for the S&P 500, if January the following year is also up, that year is also positive 74% of the time with an average return of 9.3%. Assuming that scenario […]
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Pre-emptive Pivot

Pre-emptive Pivot The news this week was the Fed (again) with the surprise change of anticipating rate cuts. Nick Timiraos, the so called ‘Fed Whisperer’ at the Wall Street Journal wrote about Chair Powell’s comments: “Dec 1: ‘It would be premature to … speculate on when policy might ease.’ Dec 13: Rate cuts are something […]
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