Crude Awakening

Crude Awakening Market expectations shifted notably this week as interest rates fell and the link between bonds and oil prices—prevalent since the start of the Iran War—broke down. Since the start of the conflict, surging crude had kept traders on alert for renewed inflationary pressure and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. However, by the end […]
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Are the Bond Vigilantes Dead?

Are the Bond Vigilantes Dead? With all due respect to the Oracle (ORCL) mess this week, for us, the important news was in the bond market. The Fed rate cut announced Wednesday was a foregone conclusion by the time the week began. But somewhat contrary to logic, long-term bond rates were creeping higher. Were the […]
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Jaws

Jaws Just When You Thought it was Safe to go in the Water… Last week we wrote about how inflation was starting to perk up again. This week, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate another 0.25%, but at the press conference on Wednesday, Chair Powell noted that progress on inflation had stalled and “From […]
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Has the Inflation Demon Been Slayed?

Has the Inflation Demon Been Slayed? The Federal Reserve would sure like us to think so, but evidence is beginning to build that it might be harder to achieve and maintain 2% inflation than the Fed would like. The late, great economist, Milton Freidman, said many times that only government creates inflation (link) and the […]
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Bullish Post-Election; But Obstacles Remain

Bullish Post-Election; But Obstacles Remain We’ve held a positive outlook on the equity markets leading into the election, and recent developments have only strengthened our conviction. Here’s why we’re optimistic about continued growth in the U.S. Equity market: Strong Earnings Outlook: Corporate earnings for 2024 are solid, and forecasts for the remainder of this year […]
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Can the American Dream Be Fixed?

Can the American Dream be Fixed? Back in February of 2023, we wrote about the housing affordability problem. Unfortunately, the situation has failed to improve and we are seeing more policy prescriptions to ‘fix’ the housing market. Will they work? History suggests that they will not. Markets need to re-balance and that will take time. […]
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