Not So Fast!

Not So Fast! The rate cut train was building momentum when a strong 2Q GDP report hit and stopped that train in its tracks. The stock market was already on edge as the early earnings reports, including the tech sector, have either not been up to par, or simply failed to impress. The earnings bar […]
READ POST

Tightwire Act

Tightwire Act The Fed could be walking a tight wire. The state of the labor market is critical for Fed policy. As the labor market remained tight, the Fed could afford to be patient with rate cuts to make sure inflation does not revive. But a Bloomberg economist is taking exception to the idea that […]
READ POST

The Big Picture

The Big Picture One of the great problems writing this missive from week to week is getting too buried in day-to-day events. When that happens, it is very easy to lose sight of the big picture – the very big trends that often occur less than once in a lifetime, but can have monumental impact […]
READ POST

Short Takes for a Long Weekend

Short Takes for a Long Weekend A Tentative Green Light The ‘most important event this week’ was the earnings report from AI leader, NVIDIA (NVDA) on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that earnings exceeded expectations once again, the company announced a 10-for-1 split and the stock hit a new high in excess of $1,000. […]
READ POST

What, Me Worry?

What, Me Worry? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held their meeting this week and as usual, it created some wild swings on Wall Street. What caused the ruckus this time was a market that had been leaning toward fewer and fewer rates cuts and some early chatter about maybe the next move had to […]
READ POST

Lower is the New Higher

Lower is the New Higher A funny thing happened on the way to lower rates… Fed projections went up, not down. Wall Street was focused on the Fed’s median for 2024 projection, which was unchanged at three 0.25% rate cuts this year. But the economic gurus at the Fed took away one rate cut in […]
READ POST

Confused Yet?

Confused yet? It was a week of inconsistencies. Inflation has been down; now CPI and PPI are up. Retail sales were strong; now they are weak. Manufacturing PMIs are up; Industrial production is down. Lay-off announcements are up; initial jobless claims are down. For a data dependent Fed trying to time interest rate reductions, the […]
READ POST