Something’s Got to Give | August 6, 2022

Something’s Got to Give There is an extraordinary dichotomy in market outlooks Bull Case: The growth slow-down has been priced in The consumer remains strong Labor market is still tight Inflation will recede Recession will be mild at worst, avoided at best Rates will decline soon, buy risk (stocks, bonds, RE, etc.) Bear Case: Valuations […]
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A Compounding Problem | July 23, 2022

A Compounding Problem Globalization is ending as supply chains adjust to the realization of the risks posed by having energy needs (Europe) and essential products manufacturing (U.S.) dependent on a political adversary. This process of reshoring won’t be fast or easy, but the trend is now firmly established. Until that shift becomes reality, globalization continues […]
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Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way | June 4, 2022

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way Through history, leadership is enduring. Great leaders are always great leaders. But markets are different; leadership changes with regularity. What leads markets on the way up, typically leads on the way down too, but it doesn’t lead the next leg up. A common mistake investors make is […]
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Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day | May 7, 2022

Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day While central bankers are very smart, they are far from infallible. Throughout the history of central banks, policy errors are common. The choice central banks are making now is between focusing on core inflation (excluding food and energy). This allows food and energy inflation to run […]
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We Choose to go to the Moon | April 2, 2022

We Choose to go to the Moon The plan for a deeply connected, just-in-time, global supply chain that will lower costs for everyone took a hard punch when Donald Trump was elected President, but the pandemic and the Ukraine war have now struck mighty blows and ‘the plan’ is getting tossed. The global economy appears […]
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The New Cold War | March 12, 2022

Short-Term Humanitarian Problem & Long-Term Economic Problem Hopes were raised, then dashed, and raised yet again this week as President Zelensky took NATO off the table for Ukraine and put a new negotiation on the table. The potential glitch appears to be the demand that ‘not one inch’ of Ukraine is lost (we’re unsure where […]
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