The Big Picture

The Big Picture One of the great problems writing this missive from week to week is getting too buried in day-to-day events. When that happens, it is very easy to lose sight of the big picture – the very big trends that often occur less than once in a lifetime, but can have monumental impact […]
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Short Takes for a Long Weekend

Short Takes for a Long Weekend A Tentative Green Light The ‘most important event this week’ was the earnings report from AI leader, NVIDIA (NVDA) on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that earnings exceeded expectations once again, the company announced a 10-for-1 split and the stock hit a new high in excess of $1,000. […]
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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Bet You Didn’t Know With all the attention on the stock market, we bet you didn’t know that over the last 5 years, gold has outperformed the S&P 500! The recent very strong performance of gold is very unusual. What’s driving this unusual occurrence?  We see it as: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly […]
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The Boy That Cried Wolf

The Boy That Cried Wolf Something has been on our minds for a long time, and we have occasionally danced around the issue on these pages, but we always feared being “the boy that cried wolf”. Those fears are unfortunately subsiding. Why the change? Mostly because financial luminaries are now beginning to make their voices […]
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A Question of Balance

A Question of Balance Balance Sheets are the Rodney Dangerfield of finance – no respect. Everyone pays attention to income statements. Did earnings miss or beat expectations? Balance sheets, on the other hand, are rarely, if ever, discussed. The U.S., like corporations, sets a budget each year, but unlike corporations, there is often little regard […]
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We Didn’t Start the Fire

We Didn’t Start the Fire… The whole world appears to be burning these days. Ukraine remains embroiled in war; the Middle East is erupting (again); mortgage rates hit 8%; inflation; the President is a bit fuzzy; the Republican House can’t find a Speaker; crime is up; the U.S. (and the entire world) is drowning in […]
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A Brief History of Debt

A Brief History of Debt (and Why it Matters) The last few weeks have looked a lot like 2022, which was the worst year for the 60/40 portfolio since 1937. I could write a book detailing the missteps of Congress and the Fed that have led us here, but there isn’t time for that, so […]
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