Where Are We Going? | June 25, 2022

Where Are We Going? We suffered the great exasperation of hearing parts of Fed Chair Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in front of the Senate on Wednesday. Fortunately, we managed to miss some of it, but rather than a session to better understand our current economic problems, it became a series of political advertisements, each charging the […]
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How Long? How Bad? | June 18, 2022

How Long? How Bad? As we have stated numerous times, we are faced with a menu of bad options. After 20+ years of ever-increasing, Fed-induced, financial largesse, inflation has turned the tables and we face the inevitable reversal of that largesse. There are no good options. The Fed will remain optimistic to the end, but […]
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Economy Killers? | June 11, 2022

Economy Killers? The CPI report for May was released on Friday and it showed that headline inflation rose 8.6% from May of last year, compared with 8.3% in April. Core inflation, that is, excluding food and energy, rose at 6.0% from last year, compared with 6.2% in April. This was a little higher than expectations […]
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Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way | June 4, 2022

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way Through history, leadership is enduring. Great leaders are always great leaders. But markets are different; leadership changes with regularity. What leads markets on the way up, typically leads on the way down too, but it doesn’t lead the next leg up. A common mistake investors make is […]
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Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day | May 7, 2022

Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day While central bankers are very smart, they are far from infallible. Throughout the history of central banks, policy errors are common. The choice central banks are making now is between focusing on core inflation (excluding food and energy). This allows food and energy inflation to run […]
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We Choose to go to the Moon | April 2, 2022

We Choose to go to the Moon The plan for a deeply connected, just-in-time, global supply chain that will lower costs for everyone took a hard punch when Donald Trump was elected President, but the pandemic and the Ukraine war have now struck mighty blows and ‘the plan’ is getting tossed. The global economy appears […]
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