This is Not the Recession You are Looking For | April 30, 2022

This is Not the Recession You are Looking For Q1 preliminary GDP estimate shocks at -1.4%, vs. expectations of about +1.0% We have been saying growth is decelerating, but Q1 is not as bad as it first appears PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have reverted to pre-pandemic levels The pandemic recovery continues to make data twitchy […]
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Bear Market Bounces | February 5, 2022

Bear Market Bounces Investopedia describes a bear market rally as follows: “…a period inside of a bear market in which prices of stocks temporarily increase, sometimes quite sharply, before returning to new lows. This rise in prices is typically a short-lived increase, sometimes lasting anywhere from days to months, amidst an overall long-term downward trend […]
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Wherever You Go, There You Are | November 27, 2021

Wherever You Go, There You Are At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we find the current market valuation to be very high. But rather than just say that, we thought it might be helpful to give some perspective around that comment. (Please note that this comment was penned prior to the market […]
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Build, Back, Better – On the Brink | November 20, 2021

Build, Back, Better – On the Brink As if we needed more evidence that Congressional mathematics is generally faulty, the CBO analysis of the Build Back Batter plan has a $376 billion gap between costs and revenue. To be fair, the official analysis excludes revenue from increased IRS enforcement. CBO estimated that increased enforcement could […]
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The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic | November 6, 2021

The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic. Tapering simply means that the Fed will reduce, and eventually eliminate, the extraordinary accommodation supplied to financial markets since the beginning of the pandemic. That accommodation was in the form of open market purchases of both Treasury bonds and mortgage backed bonds (known as QE […]
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