Where Are We Going? | June 25, 2022

Where Are We Going? We suffered the great exasperation of hearing parts of Fed Chair Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in front of the Senate on Wednesday. Fortunately, we managed to miss some of it, but rather than a session to better understand our current economic problems, it became a series of political advertisements, each charging the […]
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How Long? How Bad? | June 18, 2022

How Long? How Bad? As we have stated numerous times, we are faced with a menu of bad options. After 20+ years of ever-increasing, Fed-induced, financial largesse, inflation has turned the tables and we face the inevitable reversal of that largesse. There are no good options. The Fed will remain optimistic to the end, but […]
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SNAP Judgement | May 28, 2022

SNAP Judgment After reporting slightly disappointing earnings on April 21, just over a month later, on May 23, SNAP, Inc. (owner of social media app SnapChat – ask your kids if you are not familiar) had this to say: “Since we issued guidance on April 21, 2022, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster […]
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An Alternative View of the World | December 11, 2021

An Alternative View of the World The consensus view on Wall Street is that the Fed is dovish and economic growth is robust and both will remain so. That view is supportive of additional stock market gains in 2022. We’ve been around long enough to know that the consensus never sees the market top coming. […]
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Economic Growth Weakens While Inflation Rises | September 18, 2021

Economic Growth Weakens While Inflation Rises Why may we see economic growth continue to weaken in the coming months? Delta Variant upsurge causes consumers to pair back spending Unemployment benefits ending Hurricane Ida effects Looming government shutdown Why may inflation continue to rise? Material shortages Labor shortages Supply chain delays In our view, we believe […]
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Economy: Full Steam Ahead | April 3, 2021

Economy: Full Steam Ahead Unemployment remains high, but continuing claims remain in a downtrend. GDP is not back to pre-pandemic trendline, but early indicators say we are getting close. After the massive GDP decline last year, we should expect well above trendline growth this year as long as the vaccines work their magic. Investors remain […]
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