No Surprises

No Surprises The Fed meeting in Jackson Hole continues as this is written, but Chair Powell’s comments on Friday morning, the ‘highlight’ of the confab, were no surprise. Chair Powell reiterated that the inflation target is 2%, not 3% as some on Wall St. have speculated, and with rates at or near restrictive territory, any […]
READ POST

Bloomberg Interview – Where is The Recession? | August 9, 2023

Where is The Recession? | Bloomberg Interview On August 9th 2023 I was invited on to Bloomberg where I discussed how the market has performed in 2023 so far and where I think it is heading. One question I wonder about is why a recession hasn’t happened yet? Why was the 2023 recession delayed? We […]
READ POST

Shot Across the Bow

Shot Across the Bow In his 2021 annual letter to investors, Buffett stated “In its brief 232 years of existence … there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential like America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country’s economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.” Of course, he will be […]
READ POST

Promised Land

Promised Land It was quiet, too quiet. The lead up to this week’s Fed interest rate announcement was downright boring. After months and months of agita every time the Fed got together to talk about interest rates, this time there was little doubt about what would happen or what the Fed would say. The assumption […]
READ POST

Keep Calm and Carry On

Keep Calm and Carry On “God is Great, Beer is Good, and People are Crazy.” Country music fans will surely recognize the lyrics from Billy Currington’s famous song. These words come to mind because the first half of this year was absolutely crazy and had us thinking about drinking on more than a few occasions. […]
READ POST

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics A recession will either be one of the most anticipated to ever occur, or one of the most anticipated to not occur at all. At its core, the recession debate is all about jobs. If the job market stays strong, it’s not only very hard to have a recession, it’s […]
READ POST

One More For The Road

One More for the Road As we enter July, with Jay Powell singing a hawkish tune, we expect the market to be very focused on one question: Are interest rates going higher? The answer lies in the inflation data yet to be reported. If inflation fails to get better, then interest rates are likely heading […]
READ POST