Move Along, Nothing to See Here | September 17, 2022

Move Along, Nothing to See Here Investors have been hanging on every word from the Federal Reserve for years as their policies have been the most consistent driver of markets, be it stocks, bonds, housing, private equity, etc. Some level of rate increases has been baked in by markets, but, of course, that level gyrates […]
READ POST

TD Ameritrade Morning Trade Live Interview | August 8, 2022

(MSFT)(AAPL)(AMZN)(META) Relying on the Big Tech Giants With the current market heavily reliant upon big tech, how and when can investors jump in. Phil Palumbo talks about how investors can take advantage of the right opportunities. Tom White then demonstrates an example trade using shares of AAPL and MSFT. Please Click Here to Listen to […]
READ POST

Something’s Got to Give | August 6, 2022

Something’s Got to Give There is an extraordinary dichotomy in market outlooks Bull Case: The growth slow-down has been priced in The consumer remains strong Labor market is still tight Inflation will recede Recession will be mild at worst, avoided at best Rates will decline soon, buy risk (stocks, bonds, RE, etc.) Bear Case: Valuations […]
READ POST

Sugar High? | July 30, 2022

Sugar High? The stock market rallied as the Fed said we have reached the neutral rate. Markets are already anticipating a reversal of rate increases as stocks and bonds rallied. It’s as if the recession has been cancelled, or maybe it’s over before we knew it was here. But the Fed emphasized that it is […]
READ POST

A Compounding Problem | July 23, 2022

A Compounding Problem Globalization is ending as supply chains adjust to the realization of the risks posed by having energy needs (Europe) and essential products manufacturing (U.S.) dependent on a political adversary. This process of reshoring won’t be fast or easy, but the trend is now firmly established. Until that shift becomes reality, globalization continues […]
READ POST

Searching for Goldilocks | July 9, 2022

Searching for Goldilocks Watching the stock market these days is very easy, but also very frustrating. Good news is bad news and vice versa. Case in point was Friday’s employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 372,000 in June, well above the 250,000 Street estimate and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. What was the reaction […]
READ POST

Do you Believe in Miracles? | July 2, 2022

Do you Believe in Miracles? We just completed the worst first half stock performance since 1970. (See chart below.) To make matters worse, rates increased and bonds were also hit extremely hard. The result was that the ‘standard’ 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500 /40% Aggregate Bond Index) declined a record 16.1% in the first half. […]
READ POST