Here We Go Again

Here We Go Again It was just a month ago when weak nonfarm payroll data was released and markets swooned. It wasn’t the only reason; the unwind of the Yen carry trade also had an impact, but the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) number rekindled growth concerns, albeit briefly. Since then Fed Chair Powell has shifted the […]
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Rescuing America’s Safety Net

Rescuing America’s Safety Net A March 2023 survey found that more than 90% of Americans worry about the Social Security program, and about half of those said they worry a great deal.1 A separate survey the same month found that more than 80% of Americans worry Medicare will not be able to provide the same […]
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Something’s Got to Give | August 6, 2022

Something’s Got to Give There is an extraordinary dichotomy in market outlooks Bull Case: The growth slow-down has been priced in The consumer remains strong Labor market is still tight Inflation will recede Recession will be mild at worst, avoided at best Rates will decline soon, buy risk (stocks, bonds, RE, etc.) Bear Case: Valuations […]
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Searching for Goldilocks | July 9, 2022

Searching for Goldilocks Watching the stock market these days is very easy, but also very frustrating. Good news is bad news and vice versa. Case in point was Friday’s employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 372,000 in June, well above the 250,000 Street estimate and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. What was the reaction […]
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