Crude Awakening

Crude Awakening Market expectations shifted notably this week as interest rates fell and the link between bonds and oil prices—prevalent since the start of the Iran War—broke down. Since the start of the conflict, surging crude had kept traders on alert for renewed inflationary pressure and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. However, by the end […]
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Are the Bond Vigilantes Dead?

Are the Bond Vigilantes Dead? With all due respect to the Oracle (ORCL) mess this week, for us, the important news was in the bond market. The Fed rate cut announced Wednesday was a foregone conclusion by the time the week began. But somewhat contrary to logic, long-term bond rates were creeping higher. Were the […]
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Good News is Good News is Bad News | August 13, 2022

Good News is Good News is Bad News A lower-than-expected CPI report for July (8.5% vs 8.7% expected) had markets rallying in expectation of interest rates quickly coming back. But stronger markets make the Fed’s job more difficult, potentially leading to more rate increases than expected. It is unlikely that would be received well by […]
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