Tightwire Act

Tightwire Act The Fed could be walking a tight wire. The state of the labor market is critical for Fed policy. As the labor market remained tight, the Fed could afford to be patient with rate cuts to make sure inflation does not revive. But a Bloomberg economist is taking exception to the idea that […]
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Expert Failure

Expert Failure Quite a few years ago, I had the privilege to hear Malcom Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point and Blink, speak about the ramifications of expert failure. His point was simple: If an idiot makes a mistake, it doesn’t matter very much because logically, no one is listening to the idiot. However, if […]
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The Devil is in the Details

The Devil is in the Details Most of the time, taking note of headline economic data, like the number of new jobs created or the unemployment rate, is all you really need to stay abreast of what’s going on, but at economic inflection points, the data gets more muddled, and is often contradictory, at least […]
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How Long? How Bad? | June 18, 2022

How Long? How Bad? As we have stated numerous times, we are faced with a menu of bad options. After 20+ years of ever-increasing, Fed-induced, financial largesse, inflation has turned the tables and we face the inevitable reversal of that largesse. There are no good options. The Fed will remain optimistic to the end, but […]
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Commodities – The Bull Market You Aren’t Hearing About | January 23, 2021

Commodities – The Bull Market You Aren’t Hearing About Over the past several months, these pages have been littered with concerns about inflation re-appearing. Much like recessions and pandemics, we never really know precisely when inflation might happen. This inability to predict markets is at the heart of our investment process. The world is unpredictable, […]
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