Expert Failure

Expert Failure Quite a few years ago, I had the privilege to hear Malcom Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point and Blink, speak about the ramifications of expert failure. His point was simple: If an idiot makes a mistake, it doesn’t matter very much because logically, no one is listening to the idiot. However, if […]
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Deal, or No Deal?

Deal, or No Deal? The banking deposit crisis is receding, but the credit crunch is just starting. After 15 years of investment decisions dominated by the Fed Put (i.e., extremely low interest rates and pumping money into the economy, to rescue markets), the critical question investors currently have is whether the Fed will resume a […]
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Bank Failures Shine Light on Interest Rate Risks

Bank Failures Shine Light on Interest Rate Risks Financial markets reacted turbulently to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10, 2023, followed two days later by the failure of Signature Bank of New York. With $209 billion in assets and $175 billion in deposits, SVB was the nation’s 16th largest bank and […]
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Who’s Swimming Naked?

Who’s Swimming Naked? Most of the talk this week was of the SVB failure, bank runs, and most important… who’s next? We think that’s the wrong question. Last week we called the SVB failure an old-fashioned bank run, which it was. Much like the movie ”It’s a Wonderful Life”, depositors were lining up at SVB’s […]
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False Ceiling

False Ceiling There has already been plenty of banter in the news about the debt ceiling and with the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures running out sometime this summer; this is an issue that isn’t going away any time soon. Most of the concern is that Congress will be unable to reach a deal to increase […]
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The Apollo 13 Problem

The Apollo 13 Problem In Jim Lovell’s book, Apollo 13, he describes one of the final hurdles the crew faced as they attempted to return their crippled spacecraft to earth. The crew had to approach Earth’s atmosphere at an angle no shallower than 5.3 degrees, and no steeper than 7.7 degrees. If re-entry was shallower […]
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Stop. Take a Deep Breath.

Stop. Take a Deep Breath. The last few weeks have been amazing to watch, even for old investment pros. The narrative which over the course of 2022 had gone in our direction (recession), first flipped to a soft-landing scenario (slow growth, but no recession), then flipped to a ‘no-landing’ scenario (i.e., economic growth continues). Finally, […]
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