The Elephant in the Room

The Elephant in the Room We have long held that the Fed has been the dominant force in both the stock and bond markets. Rates going down? Then markets are moving up, and vice versa. That has generally been true since the recovery started in 2009. More recently, the Fed has taken a back seat. […]
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Confused Yet?

Confused yet? It was a week of inconsistencies. Inflation has been down; now CPI and PPI are up. Retail sales were strong; now they are weak. Manufacturing PMIs are up; Industrial production is down. Lay-off announcements are up; initial jobless claims are down. For a data dependent Fed trying to time interest rate reductions, the […]
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Tug of War

Tug of War The stock market rally continued this week, but in between there was a lot of up and down action. The S&P 500 Index fell 1.6% on Wednesday, but still managed to gain 1.4% for the week as the market eventually managed to ignore the Fed’s rate cut delay. The yield on the […]
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Pre-emptive Pivot

Pre-emptive Pivot The news this week was the Fed (again) with the surprise change of anticipating rate cuts. Nick Timiraos, the so called ‘Fed Whisperer’ at the Wall Street Journal wrote about Chair Powell’s comments: “Dec 1: ‘It would be premature to … speculate on when policy might ease.’ Dec 13: Rate cuts are something […]
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Homebuilder Stocks Outperformance in 2023

Homebuilder Stocks Outperformance in 2023 Homebuilder stocks are performing well in 2023 due to several factors affecting the U.S. housing market: Tight Housing Market: The U.S. housing market is experiencing a tightening, with an already undersupplied housing market seeing strong demand, especially for new homes. This demand is further fueled by the fact that fewer […]
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Can’t Wait!

Can’t Wait! With Thanksgiving behind us, Christmas looms as the next big event. Is this a Santa Claus rally or the beginning of a new bull market? One thing we know about this market is that Wall St. is very much like those kids expecting Santa Claus’s arrival. They can’t wait. It seems this market […]
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A Big Waste Of Time

A Big Waste Of Time It is crucial for investors to stay disciplined and adhere to their investment strategy, tuning out distracting opinions and market speculations. While it can be challenging to ignore the flurry of bullish and bearish arguments, maintaining focus on your long-term plan is key. Shifting your strategy based on market or […]
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