Who’s Swimming Naked?

Who’s Swimming Naked? Most of the talk this week was of the SVB failure, bank runs, and most important… who’s next? We think that’s the wrong question. Last week we called the SVB failure an old-fashioned bank run, which it was. Much like the movie ”It’s a Wonderful Life”, depositors were lining up at SVB’s […]
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The Apollo 13 Problem

The Apollo 13 Problem In Jim Lovell’s book, Apollo 13, he describes one of the final hurdles the crew faced as they attempted to return their crippled spacecraft to earth. The crew had to approach Earth’s atmosphere at an angle no shallower than 5.3 degrees, and no steeper than 7.7 degrees. If re-entry was shallower […]
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Why Your Kids Can’t Afford a House

Why Your Kids Can’t Afford a House Home affordability is a function of two primary things: 1) the ability to save enough for a down payment; and 2) having the income required to service the mortgage each month. With housing costs making up the largest part of family expenses, it would naturally be expected that […]
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Stop. Take a Deep Breath.

Stop. Take a Deep Breath. The last few weeks have been amazing to watch, even for old investment pros. The narrative which over the course of 2022 had gone in our direction (recession), first flipped to a soft-landing scenario (slow growth, but no recession), then flipped to a ‘no-landing’ scenario (i.e., economic growth continues). Finally, […]
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The Red Zone

The Red Zone For those that are not football fans, the red zone is the area inside the 20 yard line, where the team is close to scoring a touchdown. When the red zone is reached, the defense is defending a much smaller area on the field, which presents a greater challenge for the offense. […]
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Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?

Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession? Long-term bonds generally provide higher yields than short-term bonds, because investors demand higher returns to compensate for the risk of lending money over a longer period.  Occasionally, however, this relationship flips, and investors are willing to accept lower yields in return for the relative safety of longer-term bonds. […]
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What Do You Think?

What Do You Think? Our inboxes are full of market and economy projections for 2023, most of which are completely worthless. In early December, 2021, Reuters ran a story with this opening line: “The S&P 500 will gain 7.5% between now and the end of 2022 to finish at 4,910, driven by earnings and economic […]
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