Going Down

Going Down Next week is the big Fed rate cut decision, so this was the last week of data to influence that decision. In our view, the data this week was not bad enough to call for a 50 basis point cut (bps are basis points and a basis point is 1/100 of a percent) […]
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The Big Picture

The Big Picture One of the great problems writing this missive from week to week is getting too buried in day-to-day events. When that happens, it is very easy to lose sight of the big picture – the very big trends that often occur less than once in a lifetime, but can have monumental impact […]
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Short Takes for a Long Weekend

Short Takes for a Long Weekend A Tentative Green Light The ‘most important event this week’ was the earnings report from AI leader, NVIDIA (NVDA) on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that earnings exceeded expectations once again, the company announced a 10-for-1 split and the stock hit a new high in excess of $1,000. […]
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The Boy That Cried Wolf

The Boy That Cried Wolf Something has been on our minds for a long time, and we have occasionally danced around the issue on these pages, but we always feared being “the boy that cried wolf”. Those fears are unfortunately subsiding. Why the change? Mostly because financial luminaries are now beginning to make their voices […]
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Gold is Money, Everything Else is Credit.

Gold is Money, Everything Else is Credit. Gold’s traditional role in portfolios is as a haven in times of stress or perceived high risk on a shorter-term basis and longer term as an insurance policy against a decline in the value of the dollar. Gold’s recent run is interesting because it has come in the […]
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A Brief History of Debt

A Brief History of Debt (and Why it Matters) The last few weeks have looked a lot like 2022, which was the worst year for the 60/40 portfolio since 1937. I could write a book detailing the missteps of Congress and the Fed that have led us here, but there isn’t time for that, so […]
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