All In

All In The Big Beautiful Bill is a very big economic bet. We will leave the dissection of the bill and the various pros and cons and who wins and who loses to others. The big economic picture is that in order for debt relative ro GDP to decline, GDP growth needs to outpace growth […]
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The Big Picture

The Big Picture One of the great problems writing this missive from week to week is getting too buried in day-to-day events. When that happens, it is very easy to lose sight of the big picture – the very big trends that often occur less than once in a lifetime, but can have monumental impact […]
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Short Takes for a Long Weekend

Short Takes for a Long Weekend A Tentative Green Light The ‘most important event this week’ was the earnings report from AI leader, NVIDIA (NVDA) on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that earnings exceeded expectations once again, the company announced a 10-for-1 split and the stock hit a new high in excess of $1,000. […]
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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Bet You Didn’t Know With all the attention on the stock market, we bet you didn’t know that over the last 5 years, gold has outperformed the S&P 500! The recent very strong performance of gold is very unusual. What’s driving this unusual occurrence?  We see it as: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly […]
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The Boy That Cried Wolf

The Boy That Cried Wolf Something has been on our minds for a long time, and we have occasionally danced around the issue on these pages, but we always feared being “the boy that cried wolf”. Those fears are unfortunately subsiding. Why the change? Mostly because financial luminaries are now beginning to make their voices […]
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A Question of Balance

A Question of Balance Balance Sheets are the Rodney Dangerfield of finance – no respect. Everyone pays attention to income statements. Did earnings miss or beat expectations? Balance sheets, on the other hand, are rarely, if ever, discussed. The U.S., like corporations, sets a budget each year, but unlike corporations, there is often little regard […]
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We Didn’t Start the Fire

We Didn’t Start the Fire… The whole world appears to be burning these days. Ukraine remains embroiled in war; the Middle East is erupting (again); mortgage rates hit 8%; inflation; the President is a bit fuzzy; the Republican House can’t find a Speaker; crime is up; the U.S. (and the entire world) is drowning in […]
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