Do Tariffs Really Work? What History & Markets Say

Do Tariffs Really Work? What History & Markets Say Understanding Tariffs: Their Economic and Market Impact With tariffs now front and center, history shows they have had mixed effects on the economy and markets. While past examples like Smoot-Hawley were disastrous, Trump’s tariffs did not derail economic growth or markets. If Trump 2.0 leads to […]
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Going Down

Going Down Next week is the big Fed rate cut decision, so this was the last week of data to influence that decision. In our view, the data this week was not bad enough to call for a 50 basis point cut (bps are basis points and a basis point is 1/100 of a percent) […]
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Tug of War

Tug of War The stock market rally continued this week, but in between there was a lot of up and down action. The S&P 500 Index fell 1.6% on Wednesday, but still managed to gain 1.4% for the week as the market eventually managed to ignore the Fed’s rate cut delay. The yield on the […]
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Forecasters Agree to Disagree

Forecasters Agree to Disagree In this age of big data, it’s not uncommon to see an analysis like this made-up example: After a positive year for the S&P 500, if January the following year is also up, that year is also positive 74% of the time with an average return of 9.3%. Assuming that scenario […]
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Homebuilder Stocks Outperformance in 2023

Homebuilder Stocks Outperformance in 2023 Homebuilder stocks are performing well in 2023 due to several factors affecting the U.S. housing market: Tight Housing Market: The U.S. housing market is experiencing a tightening, with an already undersupplied housing market seeing strong demand, especially for new homes. This demand is further fueled by the fact that fewer […]
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