Stop. Take a Deep Breath.

Stop. Take a Deep Breath. The last few weeks have been amazing to watch, even for old investment pros. The narrative which over the course of 2022 had gone in our direction (recession), first flipped to a soft-landing scenario (slow growth, but no recession), then flipped to a ‘no-landing’ scenario (i.e., economic growth continues). Finally, […]
READ POST

Good News is Good News is Bad News | August 13, 2022

Good News is Good News is Bad News A lower-than-expected CPI report for July (8.5% vs 8.7% expected) had markets rallying in expectation of interest rates quickly coming back. But stronger markets make the Fed’s job more difficult, potentially leading to more rate increases than expected. It is unlikely that would be received well by […]
READ POST

Searching for Goldilocks | July 9, 2022

Searching for Goldilocks Watching the stock market these days is very easy, but also very frustrating. Good news is bad news and vice versa. Case in point was Friday’s employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 372,000 in June, well above the 250,000 Street estimate and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. What was the reaction […]
READ POST