Going Nowhere, Fast

Going Nowhere, Fast Many investors tend to get lost in the day-to-day ups and downs of the market and are often spooked or too excited about single days. Yes, there are, occasionally, single days that are important, but they are few and far between. What matters is how all those ups and downs add up. […]
READ POST

Implications of a Fracturing Global Economy

Implications of a Fracturing Global Economy Our comments each week typically revolve around shorter term issues but this week we want to spend some time thinking longer term, much longer term. The catalyst for this shift was a speech given this week by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), which discusses the […]
READ POST

Gold is Money. Everything Else is Credit.

Gold is Money, Everything Else is Credit. Question of the week: If gold is an inflation hedge, why did it fail to perform well last year when inflation was rampant? And if inflation is receding now, why is gold now approaching new all-time highs? Bloomberg Markets Live produced an article this week answering that question; […]
READ POST

Expert Failure

Expert Failure Quite a few years ago, I had the privilege to hear Malcom Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point and Blink, speak about the ramifications of expert failure. His point was simple: If an idiot makes a mistake, it doesn’t matter very much because logically, no one is listening to the idiot. However, if […]
READ POST

Deal, or No Deal?

Deal, or No Deal? The banking deposit crisis is receding, but the credit crunch is just starting. After 15 years of investment decisions dominated by the Fed Put (i.e., extremely low interest rates and pumping money into the economy, to rescue markets), the critical question investors currently have is whether the Fed will resume a […]
READ POST

Frayed, but Resilient

Frayed, but Resilient Over the past 3 weeks the economy and the banking system have become more frayed, yet markets have remained resilient. So, this week, we attempt to make sense out of what doesn’t make any sense. Our recession call remains in place as many economic indicators point toward a recession. Here are a […]
READ POST

Who’s Swimming Naked?

Who’s Swimming Naked? Most of the talk this week was of the SVB failure, bank runs, and most important… who’s next? We think that’s the wrong question. Last week we called the SVB failure an old-fashioned bank run, which it was. Much like the movie ”It’s a Wonderful Life”, depositors were lining up at SVB’s […]
READ POST