Gradually, Then Suddenly

Gradually, Then Suddenly We’re getting more than a bit tired of the debt ceiling ‘debate’ (and we use that term very loosely). The sooner this comes to head and is ‘resolved’ (again, we use the term loosely), the better. Fundamentally, it is impossible to resolve our debt problem in the next 2-3 weeks. The current […]
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Kinked

Kinked The debt ceiling impasse is, and will continue to, impact markets until a resolution is reached. The question is does it matter? As is often the case, the answer is yes and no. In the long term, yes, it matters. Our level of debt and continuing budget deficits present some problems that will need […]
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It’s the Punch You Don’t See Coming that Knocks You Out

It’s the Punch You Don’t See Coming That Knocks You Out The banking crisis has been in the news for better than a month now, but we suspect that the real crisis is ahead of us, not behind us. The ‘disappearing deposits’ problem, that brought down SVB, Signature, and most recently First Republic, could be […]
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Going Nowhere, Fast

Going Nowhere, Fast Many investors tend to get lost in the day-to-day ups and downs of the market and are often spooked or too excited about single days. Yes, there are, occasionally, single days that are important, but they are few and far between. What matters is how all those ups and downs add up. […]
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Implications of a Fracturing Global Economy

Implications of a Fracturing Global Economy Our comments each week typically revolve around shorter term issues but this week we want to spend some time thinking longer term, much longer term. The catalyst for this shift was a speech given this week by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), which discusses the […]
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Gold is Money. Everything Else is Credit.

Gold is Money, Everything Else is Credit. Question of the week: If gold is an inflation hedge, why did it fail to perform well last year when inflation was rampant? And if inflation is receding now, why is gold now approaching new all-time highs? Bloomberg Markets Live produced an article this week answering that question; […]
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Expert Failure

Expert Failure Quite a few years ago, I had the privilege to hear Malcom Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point and Blink, speak about the ramifications of expert failure. His point was simple: If an idiot makes a mistake, it doesn’t matter very much because logically, no one is listening to the idiot. However, if […]
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