Lower is the New Higher

Lower is the New Higher A funny thing happened on the way to lower rates… Fed projections went up, not down. Wall Street was focused on the Fed’s median for 2024 projection, which was unchanged at three 0.25% rate cuts this year. But the economic gurus at the Fed took away one rate cut in […]
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Tug of War

Tug of War The stock market rally continued this week, but in between there was a lot of up and down action. The S&P 500 Index fell 1.6% on Wednesday, but still managed to gain 1.4% for the week as the market eventually managed to ignore the Fed’s rate cut delay. The yield on the […]
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Cryptonite?

Cryptonite? As of Jan 11, we now have several spot Bitcoin ETFs, making ownership of Bitcoin crypto currency as simple as buying a stock. As that day approached, the thought was that when this easy avenue for investment opened up, Bitcoin would jump in price as both institutional and retail investors piled in. On that […]
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Forecasters Agree to Disagree

Forecasters Agree to Disagree In this age of big data, it’s not uncommon to see an analysis like this made-up example: After a positive year for the S&P 500, if January the following year is also up, that year is also positive 74% of the time with an average return of 9.3%. Assuming that scenario […]
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Pre-emptive Pivot

Pre-emptive Pivot The news this week was the Fed (again) with the surprise change of anticipating rate cuts. Nick Timiraos, the so called ‘Fed Whisperer’ at the Wall Street Journal wrote about Chair Powell’s comments: “Dec 1: ‘It would be premature to … speculate on when policy might ease.’ Dec 13: Rate cuts are something […]
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Can’t Wait!

Can’t Wait! With Thanksgiving behind us, Christmas looms as the next big event. Is this a Santa Claus rally or the beginning of a new bull market? One thing we know about this market is that Wall St. is very much like those kids expecting Santa Claus’s arrival. They can’t wait. It seems this market […]
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We Didn’t Start the Fire

We Didn’t Start the Fire… The whole world appears to be burning these days. Ukraine remains embroiled in war; the Middle East is erupting (again); mortgage rates hit 8%; inflation; the President is a bit fuzzy; the Republican House can’t find a Speaker; crime is up; the U.S. (and the entire world) is drowning in […]
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