This is Not the Recession You are Looking For | April 30, 2022

This is Not the Recession You are Looking For Q1 preliminary GDP estimate shocks at -1.4%, vs. expectations of about +1.0% We have been saying growth is decelerating, but Q1 is not as bad as it first appears PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have reverted to pre-pandemic levels The pandemic recovery continues to make data twitchy […]
READ POST

Canary in the Coal Mine? | April 9, 2022

Canary in the Coal Mine? Stories about trucker shortages remain common. Truckers move almost about 73% of all freight in the U.S. Anecdotal evidence suggests that demand for trucking services is rapidly waning. Are trucking companies the canary in the U.S. economic coal mine? Like most people that follow financial markets, we follow economic data […]
READ POST

Embracing Risk | January 29, 2022

Embracing Risk After operating in an environment where risks were clearly backstopped by the Federal Reserve. For investors, the world we have known for at least the last 13 years was on course for a fundamental change. The message that investors should be hearing loud and clear is that that there are risks that can’t […]
READ POST

The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic | November 6, 2021

The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic. Tapering simply means that the Fed will reduce, and eventually eliminate, the extraordinary accommodation supplied to financial markets since the beginning of the pandemic. That accommodation was in the form of open market purchases of both Treasury bonds and mortgage backed bonds (known as QE […]
READ POST

Houston, Do We Have a Problem? | October 16, 2021

Houston, Do We Have a Problem? On Apollo 13, the problem was quickly recognized. In today’s economy, there are still plenty of questions. We hate to be part of the gloom crew, but when you step back and look at the world through a wide-angle lens, it’s is increasingly hard to be optimistic. The world […]
READ POST

When Will They Ever Learn? | September 25, 2021

When Will They Ever Learn? The title is a line from Pete Seeger’s old folk song “Where have all The Flowers Gone?”, which has been recorded by many artists over the years. Whether we speak of war and peace, as the song does, or economies, it is a cyclical world. The past is typically prologue. […]
READ POST