The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic | November 6, 2021

The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic. Tapering simply means that the Fed will reduce, and eventually eliminate, the extraordinary accommodation supplied to financial markets since the beginning of the pandemic. That accommodation was in the form of open market purchases of both Treasury bonds and mortgage backed bonds (known as QE […]
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Houston, Do We Have a Problem? | October 16, 2021

Houston, Do We Have a Problem? On Apollo 13, the problem was quickly recognized. In today’s economy, there are still plenty of questions. We hate to be part of the gloom crew, but when you step back and look at the world through a wide-angle lens, it’s is increasingly hard to be optimistic. The world […]
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When Will They Ever Learn? | September 25, 2021

When Will They Ever Learn? The title is a line from Pete Seeger’s old folk song “Where have all The Flowers Gone?”, which has been recorded by many artists over the years. Whether we speak of war and peace, as the song does, or economies, it is a cyclical world. The past is typically prologue. […]
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Economic Growth Weakens While Inflation Rises | September 18, 2021

Economic Growth Weakens While Inflation Rises Why may we see economic growth continue to weaken in the coming months? Delta Variant upsurge causes consumers to pair back spending Unemployment benefits ending Hurricane Ida effects Looming government shutdown Why may inflation continue to rise? Material shortages Labor shortages Supply chain delays In our view, we believe […]
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When is it Too Much? | September 4, 2021

When is it Too Much? First the pandemic bred fear, and then it bred money. Clearly there was a great financial need among many millions of Americans as the pandemic closed down the economy in the Spring of 2020. Congress came out swinging with several bills, spending trillions of dollars in an attempt to offset […]
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Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021

Peak Growth and What Comes Next Economic growth has been extraordinary, albeit from a very low, pandemic-induced base, and concerns of inflation have been front and center. We are starting to see talk of ‘peak growth’, meaning that we could be exiting the early part of the economic cycle (i.e., early, fast recovery) and we […]
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Taxes Are Headed Higher – Why You Shouldn’t Worry | May 1, 2021

Taxes Are Headed Higher – Why You Shouldn’t Worry Past tax increases have NOT been associated with slower economic growth or a weaker stock market. The effects of infrastructure spending will serve as an economic offset to tax increases. The final result is expected to be watered down form Biden’s aspirational proposal. Even the slimmest […]
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