Something’s Got to Give | August 6, 2022

Something’s Got to Give There is an extraordinary dichotomy in market outlooks Bull Case: The growth slow-down has been priced in The consumer remains strong Labor market is still tight Inflation will recede Recession will be mild at worst, avoided at best Rates will decline soon, buy risk (stocks, bonds, RE, etc.) Bear Case: Valuations […]
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Looking for One Foot Bars | May 14, 2022

Looking for One Foot Bars After a difficult start to 2022, the tone of markets has become decidedly worse over the last 2 weeks, notwithstanding the rally on Friday, as markets appear to be shifting their focus from an inflation problem to a growth problem (i.e. a looming recession). The S&P 500 is now down […]
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Sleeping With the Enemy | February 26, 2022

Sleeping With the Enemy The U.S. and Europe are now beginning to pay the price for their inability, or unwillingness, to recognize the growing dependence of Western economies on political adversaries. The economic connections between Russia and the U.S. and EU have complicated the situation and have skewed sanctions to the weakside thus far. Sanctions […]
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Prognosticators Delight | January 2, 2021

Prognosticators Delight The magic of the new year is that prognosticators get to wipe the slate clean and begin anew, and as usual there is no shortage of prognostications for 2021. The more common themes call for a weaker dollar, stronger international markets, a spark of inflation, a rebound in small cap stocks, and the […]
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