Can the American Dream Be Fixed?

Can the American Dream be Fixed? Back in February of 2023, we wrote about the housing affordability problem. Unfortunately, the situation has failed to improve and we are seeing more policy prescriptions to ‘fix’ the housing market. Will they work? History suggests that they will not. Markets need to re-balance and that will take time. […]
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The Verdict

The Verdict Last week we mentioned the Wall Street adage ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ and wondered how markets would react to the first rate cut. The answer still isn’t clear. On Wednesday, the market swung wildly right after the 50 bps rate cut was announced. That is typical right after a Fed announcement, […]
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Going Down

Going Down Next week is the big Fed rate cut decision, so this was the last week of data to influence that decision. In our view, the data this week was not bad enough to call for a 50 basis point cut (bps are basis points and a basis point is 1/100 of a percent) […]
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Here We Go Again

Here We Go Again It was just a month ago when weak nonfarm payroll data was released and markets swooned. It wasn’t the only reason; the unwind of the Yen carry trade also had an impact, but the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) number rekindled growth concerns, albeit briefly. Since then Fed Chair Powell has shifted the […]
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We’ve Seen this Movie Before

We’ve Seen This Movie Before This week brought NVDA earnings, which again showed phenomenal growth in sales and earnings, with similarly impressive margins, all attributed to the global scramble to gain position in the AI movement. This has been driven in large part by the large hyperscalers (AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOO and TSLA) ordering massive […]
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Turning Point

Turning Point In Friday’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Powell confirmed what the stock market has been anticipating – it is time to adjust monetary policy, that is, lower interest rates. By the time the first cut is made in September, it will have been almost a year since the Fed […]
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WWBD?

WWBD? The stock market appears at a cross-roads. On one hand, many believe that we are about to stick the soft landing, in which case, late cycle stocks, energy, materials, health care, and consumer staples, should be bought because these sectors have historically done well in the late cycle. On the other hand, others worry […]
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