A Brief History of Debt

A Brief History of Debt (and Why it Matters) The last few weeks have looked a lot like 2022, which was the worst year for the 60/40 portfolio since 1937. I could write a book detailing the missteps of Congress and the Fed that have led us here, but there isn’t time for that, so […]
READ POST

The One to Watch

The One to Watch  In the face of ’no news’, we have seen a continuing rise in long term treasury bond rates (and decline in bond prices). This week, markets were squarely focused on the potential for this trend to continue that sent stock prices reeling once again, putting a crimp on diversified portfolios. So […]
READ POST

Under My Thumb

Under My Thumb Fed meetings usually focus on the change in current interest rates, but this week the focus was on 2024. Current rates were left unchanged, but the Fed doubled down on the ‘higher (rates) for longer’ theme. Chair Powell repeated at least a dozen times that the Fed will “proceed carefully” from here, […]
READ POST

Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape You have to be a very attentive student of the stock market to understand just how unusual this year has been. The year isn’t over yet, so much can change from now to the end of the year, but what has happened thus far is startling. If you read these pages […]
READ POST

Can’t Live With Them, Can’t Live Without Them

Can’t Live With Them, Can’t Live Without Them The topic here is hydrocarbons. Oil prices are creating the latest market conundrum. West Texas Intermediate is approaching the $90 level and is up double digits over the last couple of weeks. One might think that is bullish for the economy (better economy = more demand = […]
READ POST

EV’s Running Out of Customers? We’ve Seen This Movie Before!

EV’s Running Out of Customers? We’ve Seen This Movie Before! The title this week was prompted by a headline on Business Insider ”EVs are running out of customers — and some dealers don’t want them anymore”. Not long ago, this headline seemed unfathomable. The move toward green tech seemed unstoppable, and EV demand seemed insatiable, […]
READ POST

No Surprises

No Surprises The Fed meeting in Jackson Hole continues as this is written, but Chair Powell’s comments on Friday morning, the ‘highlight’ of the confab, were no surprise. Chair Powell reiterated that the inflation target is 2%, not 3% as some on Wall St. have speculated, and with rates at or near restrictive territory, any […]
READ POST